**Pitching+** is one of three models that, along with Stuff+ and Location+, attempts to look at the process underlying a pitcherās performance in order to remove some of the noise that can be present when looking at on-field results. [ā¦]
**Stuff+** looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. A pitcherās secondary pitches are defined based on their primary fastball ā with āprimaryā defined by usage in an outing ā and so are judged by velocity and movement differentials along with raw velocity and movement numbers.
**Location+** is a count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcherās ability to put pitches in the right place. No velocity, movement, or any other physical characteristics are included in the statistic. A breaking ball should go to different parts of the strike zone in 2-0 and 1-2 counts, and Location+ captures that phenomenon.Ā Stringer-based command statisticsĀ that attempt to judge what a pitcher was intending to do with each pitchĀ do not add predictive valueĀ to those models, so Location+ only looks at actual locations and implicitly assumes the intent is generally the same across the league in certain counts with certain pitches.
He is a big league pitcher and an above average one by every measure. He is also a late bloomer, having turned 27 last September. There are only 30 right-handed pitchers since 1975 to make 26 or more major league starts and throw 160 or fewer innings before their age-27 season and Roupp is #5 on that list at 157 IP in 26 starts prior to 2026. I think itās instructive insofar as our hopes and dreams here. Is there a historical comparison to be had?
Trent Thornton leads the list with 160 innings, and thatās in large part from 154 IP and 29 starts made for the Blue Jays in 2019, his age-25 season. He had a 4.84 ERA and 4.59 FIP and would make just 6 starts combined in 2020 and 2021. He made one start in 2023 and that was that: he was a reliever the rest of his career. Adbert Alzolay started 27 games before 27 and most of those came in 2021, his age-26 season (21 starts). After 2021, he never started again. Glen Otto made 33 starts for the Rangers in 2021 and 2022 combined and hasnāt pitched since 2023, when he was used as a reliever in 10.2 major league innings. Jharel Cotton started 29 games between his age-24 & 25 seasons but that was it for him as a starting pitcher despite pitching two more major league seasons (2021 and 2022). More recent examples are Hayden Birdsong (ahem), the Athleticsā Joey Estes, and the White Soxās Shane Smith. Roupp is basically better than this field, so thereās not really a good comp to be had.
I think we all know why, too: injury! Heās missed time from injury in every year of his pro career with two concerning ones cropping up last year (right elbow inflammation in July and knee inflammation in August). Itās a lot to ask of this #3 starter to get to 180 innings and maybe even 160 innings, but thatās the sort of contribution the team will need from him if 2026 is going to be memorable. Taking his above average performance as a given (which is risky, I admit), the more innings from the starting staff means less work for the bullpen. The Giantsā 837 innings from their rotation last year was just 17th in MLB. The top 10 teams all had winning records, and so figure itāll take somewhere in the 860s to crack that list.
Every fan has their pet player who they think will be the key to the teamās success in a given season, and thatās fine, but here are two players who the Giants simply canāt play well without. They might be able to get buy with some 0-for-4s from Jung Hoo Lee (who, to be clear, has had *a lot* of them), but his mere presence in the lineup can sometimes be enough to setup the other guys. Roupp, on the other hand, might be able to have a bad turn through the rotation if the other arms have done well, but otherwise, the Giants need Roupp to be as consistent as a peak Matt Cain or Ryan Vogelsong and simply shove when put in front of an opponent.
And yes, obviously, these two straws can only stir a drink thatās been made. If Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Willy Adames, Luis Arraez, and (long sigh) Rafael Devers donāt approximate their career norms and with the extraordinary caveat of general good health on the roster, then thereās no lineup for Jung Hoo Lee to lengthen or dynamize and no pitching staff for Landen Roupp to prop up.
But without either of these players, the Giants wonāt be going far.
