Timberwolves-Nuggets first round: Schedule, keys and a prediction

One of the NBA’s more recently developed rivalries opens its next chapter Saturday, as Minnesota and Denver meet in the playoffs for the third time in six seasons.

Both teams sport championship aspirations, though Denver’s look more realistic from the outside. Still, the Nuggets noted when they won the title in 2023 that their first-round series with Minnesota was their stiffest test.

The Wolves always come to play against Denver, and present the Nuggets with an array of mismatch problems.

Regardless of whom emerges, it figures to be another scintillating battle.

Here’s a look at the series:

Schedule

Game 1: Saturday in Denver, 2:30 p.m., Amazon Prime Video

Game 2: Monday in Denver, 9:30 pm, NBC

Game 3: Thursday in Minnesota, 8:30 pm, Amazon Prime Video

Game 4: Saturday, April 25 in Minnesota, 7:30 pm, ABC

Game 5*: Monday, April 27 in Denver, TBA

Game 6*: Thursday, April 30 in Minnesota, TBA

Game 7*: Saturday, May 2 in Denver, TBA

*= if necessary

Regular season series

Denver won three of the four matchups, though none of the games featured both teams at full strength. The Nuggets beat Minnesota sans Anthony Edwards at Target Center in October. In November, the Nuggets came back and did it again, scoring 68 second-half points to down Minnesota.

The Nuggets won a thriller on Christmas in Denver, squandering a lead late in the fourth quarter, courtesy of an Edwards triple at the end of regulation, only to then rally themselves to steal the game in overtime.

Finally, Minnesota bested Denver in March, winning in Colorado in a matinee in which the Nuggets were without Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson. Watson is likely to miss at least the start of this series with a hamstring injury.

Timberwolves’ keys to victory

Ball pressure: Minnesota won with it two years ago against Denver, wearing down an already physically hampered Jamal Murray throughout the course of the seven-game series.

With Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Ayo Dosunmu and Donte DiVincenzo, Minnesota still has the bodies to press up on the Nuggets on the perimeter, which may be the best way to get the well-oiled Denver offensive machine slightly out of sync.

The Wolves don’t have a great answer for defending Nikola Jokic. And Denver’s roster is flush with surrounding shooters. But if Minnesota can prevent the Nuggets from comfortably getting into their offensive actions, it could reduce Denver’s gaudy efficiency.

Julius Randle: Denver has, traditionally, sold out to stop Edwards, particularly at key points in the game. That means throwing multiple bodies at the superstar guard. In the March meeting, Jokic came as a second defender the moment Edwards crossed halfcourt.

That forces Edwards to surrender the ball, but allows his teammates to play 4-on-3 offense on the backside. Minnesota can be lethal in that setup, if its quick and efficient with its decision-making. Randle figures to be the primary beneficiary of Edwards’ added defensive attention, but that will require him being aggressive and smart while playing off the catch.

Minnesota’s offense will need to dominate this series if the Wolves are to advance. Randle consistently scoring an efficient 25-plus points against a Denver team ill-suited to defend him would go a long way toward achieving necessary marks of production.

Tempo time: Speed will be Minnesota’s primary advantage in this series. The Wolves sport the significantly more athletic roster. With Bones Hyland, Dosunmu, Edwards, McDaniels and Co., if Minnesota can get out in transition, it will be difficult for Denver to keep pace.

But how frequently can Minnesota create that tempo? Because Denver dominates via execution. And it’s hard to get out in transition if you’re always pulling the ball out of the net.

So Minnesota must find ways to force turnovers and get stops to attack at its preferred pace going the other way.

Prediction

Denver in 6. Two things can be true in this series: Minnesota can peak in the playoffs, as it did a year ago, and the Nuggets can still prove to be too much to handle.

Denver at 90% health may be the second-best team in the NBA, with an offense that even an engaged Wolves team could run out of answers to stop.

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