The NFL's 2026 schedules are shaping up to be challenging for teams like the Bears, Packers, and Chiefs. These teams are projected to face tougher opponents based on their previous season's performance.
Key points
NFL teams will learn their 2026 schedules soon
Some teams face tougher schedules based on past performance
Bears, Packers, and Chiefs projected to have difficult outlooks
Schedule difficulty is influenced by division and standings
Every NFL team will soon find out its official path to the 2026 playoffs. Some, however, will be more difficult than others.
The nature of the league's revolving opponents, based on a team's division and finish in the standings the previous season, often means that after a successful campaign, a team's schedule can toughen up the following year.
A lot can change in an offseason, but early indications show a few notable franchises will face more difficult schedules in 2026, based on 2025 results and projections for the coming season.
Here's a look at the five hardest projected schedules for the 2026 NFL season.
Which NFL teams have the toughest schedules in 2026?
The Bears, Packers, and Chiefs are among the teams projected to have the most difficult schedules in 2026.
What factors influence the difficulty of NFL schedules?
NFL schedules are influenced by a team's division and their finish in the standings from the previous season, which determines their opponents for the upcoming year.
How does a team's performance in 2025 affect their 2026 schedule?
A team's success in 2025 can lead to a tougher schedule in 2026 due to facing stronger opponents based on their standings.
When will the official NFL schedule for 2026 be released?
The official NFL schedule for 2026 will be released soon, detailing each team's path to the playoffs.
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SOS based on 2026 projected Vegas win totals: 6th-hardest
Based purely on the teams' 2025 records, no club faces a more difficult path in 2026 than the Bears.
Part of Chicago's tough schedule is the fact that the NFC North is always a tough division. It was the only division in the NFL to see all four teams win at least seven games in 2025, and it set an even higher bar in that aspect, with the Bears, Packers, Lions and Vikings all winning at least nine games. After making serious noise under Ben Johnson, winning the NFC North, the Bears will continue to have six difficult divisional games.
A few more elements are factoring into the Bears' tough 2026 schedule, however. For one, the AFC East and NFC North are aligned to meet this season, meaning Chicago has scheduled matchups against two title contenders last year — the Patriots and Bills. NFC North teams will also take on the entire NFC South, meaning Chicago will be tasked with games against the Buccaneers and Panthers.
Additionally, because the Bears finished first in their division last season, they were automatically destined to face the other NFC division-winners and the last two Super Bowl champions: Philadelphia and Seattle.
And finally, rounding out the Bears' 2026 schedule for their lone non-division-based, opposite conference opponent is another previous playoff team in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That marks seven total 2025 playoff teams (Packers, Eagles, Seahawks, Jaguars, Bills, Patriots, Panthers) on the Bears' schedule next season, plus another four teams that won either eight or nine games (Falcons, Vikings, Lions, Buccaneers). While Caleb Williams broke out in 2025, the Bears will have their challenges to return to the postseason.
SOS based on 2026 projected Vegas win totals: 2nd-hardest
Miami won't carry very serious playoff expectations in 2026, entering a rebuilding year after the departures of Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and more. But as the Dolphins do look to build something around Malik Willis, they'll have a difficult schedule.
Not only will the Dolphins have their typical four games per year against rising AFC powerhouses in the Patriots and Bills, but with the AFC East assigned to face both the full NFC North and AFC West, there are plenty of talented teams on Miami's docket.
Facing the NFC North means taking on two 2025 playoff teams, the Bears and Packers, along with a high-floor, Dan Campbell-led Lions team and the Kyler Murray-led Vikings. In the AFC West, the Dolphins will have to face Justin Herbert and the Chargers, Bo Nix and the Broncos, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and Fernando Mendoza and the Raiders.
Other teams on the Dolphins' schedule include a Colts squad that impressed in the first half of 2025, a 49ers team that managed 12 wins last year despite injury issues, and a Bengals team that will have a healthy Joe Burrow and much higher expectations in 2026.
In other words, the upcoming season may be a rough one in Miami.
SOS based on 2026 projected Vegas win totals: 1st-hardest
Based on projected win totals for 2026, the Cardinals actually have the projected hardest schedule in the NFL. Being in undoubtedly the league's most dominant division right now doesn't help in that aspect, but it's also hard to envision Arizona making a playoff push as it continues building with new head coach Mike LaFleur and a dynamic weapon in Jeremiyah Love.
On top of having six total games against the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers, the Cardinals will also face the entire NFC East and AFC West. That means Arizona will face three more 2025 playoff teams (Chargers, Broncos, Eagles), on top of talented units that missed out last year like the Cowboys, Chiefs and Commanders.
Fortunately, the Cardinals will have a few lighter weeks, such as matchups against the Raiders, Jets and Saints. But like the Dolphins, an expected rebuilding year in 2026 could see losses rack up quickly for the Cardinals this fall.
Jordan Love
Jordan Love
4. Green Bay Packers
Opponents' 2025 winning percentage: .538
SOS based on 2026 projected Vegas win totals: 16th-hardest
The reasoning behind the Packers' difficult schedule is similar to the Bears', considering they play most of the same opponents — including each other. Green Bay settled for a Wild Card berth at 9-7-1 in 2025, but with all four NFC North teams having a realistic shot at the division crown in 2026, there will be no easy path back to the playoffs.
Green Bay will have to face both the Bills and Patriots out of the AFC East, along with the Panthers and Buccaneers out of the NFC South. The Packers, who finished second in their division in 2025, were also automatically aligned for matchups with the Cowboys and Rams, fellow NFC second-place finishers last year. And out of the AFC, Green Bay has a home game against a stingy Texans defense.
For the most part, those are the only teams that appear difficult for the Packers. They should have some favorable games against the Jets, Dolphins and Saints, making their schedule a tad lighter despite a ton of challengers in 2026.
SOS based on 2026 projected Vegas win totals: 23rd-hardest
It remains to be seen when Patrick Mahomes will return for the Chiefs in 2026. But on top of managing the star quarterback's injury, the team is set to face a number of projected contenders.
The Broncos and Chargers will once again be rock-solid divisional foes for Kansas City. Beyond that, the Chiefs will meet all four NFC West units — meaning they'll have to face the two 2025 NFC Championship Game squads, the Seahawks and Rams, along with an always-steady 49ers team.
Kansas City will also face the AFC West teams, meaning matchups against Josh Allen and the Bills, along with Drake Maye and the Patriots.
Depending on how either team bounces back — with both star quarterbacks, Daniel Jones and Joe Burrow, returning from injuries — games against the Colts and Bengals could also prove difficult.
The Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014 last year. To return to the playoffs, they'll have to win a handful of games against some of the NFL's best in 2026.
