Trying to make sense of Moise Kean’s off year

Even as his form has crumbled, Kean’s still serviceable because he’s got that trademark goal: he physically engages with a defender and then wins a footrace over the top. There’s only a handful of strikers with Kean’s combination of sheer speed and physical strength. I know that it’s a cliche and often a racist one but unfortunately the pace/power thing applies here. For as long as Kean’s in his physical prime, he’s going to be a clear threat to any defense because he’s rapid.

I’ve noticed a few other differences this year as compared to last. The first is obviously that the supporting cast has gotten much, much worse. Fiorentina was competent last year and is ass this year. We’ve spent enough time on this topic that I don’t feel like discussing it beyond reminding everyone that sometimes, a team’s so bad that its miasma of ass envelops everyone. That is the current edition of our beloved, idiot Viola to a tee. That’s not the issue, though, as Kean’s sky-high xG demonstrates. He’s getting chances but not converting them.

While his nuclear pace remains, Kean’s been ineffective elsewhere, which has rendered him more of a Serie B-level striker. Where he’s really fallen short to my mind is as a box presence: he scored 7 league goals off crosses last year compared to maybe 1 this year. Some of that is about service, of course, but I’d argue that more of it is on Kean being more stationary in the penalty area. He’s spent more time pulling out to the wing, maybe in a health-conscious decision to minimize contact with bigger defenders through the middle. Whatever the reason, he hasn’t impressed within the width of the 18-yard box.

That’s also apparent in his hold-up play. Last year, he was an elite release valve, able to make the ball stick even with a defender on his back. This year, he’s been much worse. I don’t have any numbers to illustrate that. In fact, he’s winning more fouls per 90 than last year. Nevertheless, he just doesn’t look as good. He doesn’t spin off his marker in the same way, leaving some poor sap clutching at wind. Again, this is about his physical state. An ankle or calf issue would sap his explosiveness and the knock-on effect is that he’s battling away without having the escape speed.

Naturally, he’s frustrated. Snarling petulance has replaced imperious confidence. A fractured squad hasn’t helped but last year, the irritation of having a striker who refuses to pass only makes things worse when that striker doesn’t score. We’ve all played with that person and it’s maddening. It saps your will to work hard. Why bother busting your ass to support him when he’ll never give the ball back and then you’ll have to sprint back while he loafs around? It’s a socially uncomfortable situation that simmers away and occasionally boils over. I’m not saying that’s why Kean snapped on boring content creator Kristian Pengwin instead of ignoring him, but I bet you there’s some sort of correlation.

To be clear, this is Kean at his worst, just as last year was Kean at his best. He’s a high-variance player but the ability to do something extraordinary is always there. He’s not Krzysztof Piątek, another striker who had an incandescent season before regressing to the meanest of means. That’s Moise’s floor. The ceiling remains the very vault of heaven. Building a better environment around him will give him access to that ceiling but he also needs to improve.

Unfortunately for Kean, the narrative has already congealed around him. His first year in Florence saw him become Italy’s best striker and now that’s his identity in the eyes of the supporters. Because Fiorentina Moise Kean is how he was introduced to us as a major Viola character, that initial impression is the one that’ll stick, no matter what else he does. His 2024-2025 set everyone’s expectations way too high and now those same expectations have boxed him in. Unless he’s the best striker in Italy, he’s underperforming. Disappointing. Not good enough.

That’s silly, of course. None of us are our ceilings or our floors. We float somewhere in between like chandeliers whose cords vary in length over time, raising and lowering us. Yeah, it’s a dumb metaphor, but reducing any complex thing to a 2-dimensional metaphor is dumb. This isn’t FIFA, where players have fixed attributes. Actual people have too much going on for video games to accurately represent. Mild physical discomfort, stress in or out of the workplace, not sleeping well: if you’ve ever played a sport, you realize what a difference these insignificances make to your performance. Now expand that to someone who’s not just doing it for fun but because it’s a full time job. There’s so much variance from game to game and even minute to minute.

This isn’t to say that Kean just needs patience. Maybe he’s already played his best season and he’ll only approximate that for the rest of his career. 80% of that Kean is still a productive striker, one worth keeping for a club like Fiorentina. He’s not going to follow the Piątek trajectory: a 22-goal domestic season followed by returns of 13, 7, 4, and 4, then a “resurgence” in the Süper Lig (which tends to be easier on strikers) before sundowning in Qatar at the age of 30. He’s better than that.

The catch is Fiorentina’s upcoming rebuild. Without even the piddling Conference League payouts, Fabio Paratici needs to dig up money from somewhere to reshape this squad and Kean is far and away the most valuable asset in the side. I doubt his €62 million release clause is scaring anyone off because the Viola may offer him at a discount to interested parties. €40 million or so would probably be enough for 3 or 4 new players, not to mention slashing the highest wage on the roster.

It’s a bummer but it’s also about what I expected when he signed that extension back in August. I was convinced that Kean wanted continuity in a World Cup year, allowing him to focus on the Azzurri, and would then consider an exit afterwards this summer. The national team failed to hold up its end of that bargain despite his record-setting performances but the outcome’s the same. That’s the reality of the modern game: the only players who stick around are the ones who aren’t moving onto bigger and better things.

And even in an off year, anyone with eyes knows that Kean’s still a good player. As the European tactical milieu has swung towards transitional rather than deliberate, his skill set will be in demand at the highest level. The vibes are bad but vibes can change fast, especially for one of the most vibes-heavy players in Serie A. For my money, this miserable season is a mirror held up for fans to look into. If it shows you that Moise is a bad player, remember that mirrors just reflect reality. They don’t create it. That’s up to us.