Tuesday NBA Play-In picks: Home teams have dominated in 7 vs. 8 matchup, boding well for Suns over Blazers

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The NBA's Play-In Tournament starts Tuesday night with two games, and I will remind you that technically these are neither regular-season games nor playoff matchups. They are somewhat nebulous games that don't count toward any official season statistics, similar to the annual NBA Cup championship game.

We get No. 10 Miami at No. 9 Charlotte from the Eastern Conference in the early game at 7:30 ET, and No. 8 Portland at No. 7 Phoenix at 10 ET from the West – both shown on Prime Video. I'll touch on both but will mostly focus on Blazers-Suns because historically the No. 7 seeds have had such a huge edge in those games at 8-2 overall. Note that the 7 vs. 8 game Wednesday from the East is Orlando at Philadelphia, and I'll be playing the Sixers for the same reason.

DraftKings Tuesday Play-In parlay (+117)

• Heat-Hornets Alt Over 217.5
• Suns ML vs. Blazers

I believe these No. 8 seeds are losing not simply because they had a worse regular-season record than the No. 7 or even because it's a road game. Nope, I think it's because those guys know they have a home game in their back pocket for a playoff spot against the 9-10 winner even with a loss to the No. 7.

This round is old hat for the Heat, who have played a total of six Play-In Tournament games to tie Atlanta for the most, but Miami's four wins are best. The team has made the full-field playoffs in each of the three previous appearances (10th seed entering Play-In last season, eighth the season before and seventh in 2022-23) and is +425 for this year. In that 2023 postseason, the Heat became the second-ever eighth seed to reach the NBA Finals (1998-99 Knicks, way before the Play-In).

That's not happening with the 2026 Heat even though they have 12 games this season scoring at least 140 points, an NBA record.  But they can't defend much and enter 5-10 in their past 15. Perhaps expect a rout Tuesday even with the Hornets as playoff newbies, as all four regular-season meetings were decided by at least eight points and three by at least 18.

Charlotte won the most recent meeting by 30. It is 0-2 all-time in the Play-In, but those were away: 2021 at Indiana and 2022 at Atlanta. These Hornets are way better, going 28-10 (third-best mark in the NBA since Jan. 22) after starting the season 16-28.

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Meanwhlie, as a Bulls fan, I have a vested interest in what the Trail Blazers do in the Play-In because Chicago gets their first-round pick in a loaded draft if they make the playoffs. So ideally for me, Portland loses tonight since I'm backing Phoenix but then hosts and beats the 9-10 winner.

Portland seeks its first playoff appearance since 2020-21 and is -310 to make it, but was 18-23 away (third-worst among all playoff teams), had a 113.0 offensive rating (worst among playoff teams) and -0.5 net rating (worst) during the year. Even getting this far was impressive considering Tiago Splitter took over as head coach in the second game following Chauncey Billups' stunning arrest.

Phoenix also overachieved this season after shipping Kevin Durant to Houston over the summer. It's the first Play-In game in team history as it looks for a fifth postseason appearance in the past six seasons, and I believe gets it. When both Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks (part of the Durant haul) play this season, the Suns are 26-16 compared to 19-21 when they don't.

Booker's career playoff average of 28.0 points per is tied for eighth-most in NBA history and he's -110 for at least 27 Tuesday. The Suns are one of the best 3-point defensive teams in the league, allowing foes to hit only 34.6%, second-best in the NBA. Portland was among the worst 3-point shooting teams at 34.3%.

The Suns won the season series 2-1 and are 10-2 in their past 12 at home in the series but did lose the one this year (solid 25-16 at home overall). If Phoenix wins, it goes to West No. 2 San Antonio this weekend. Tonight's loser will face the winner of Warriors-Clippers for the eighth seed and the right to go to Oklahoma City. The Suns are -700 to make the playoffs in any form, and the No. 7 seed has never failed to do so from the Play-In.

DraftKings is offering some interesting Play-In specials, including whether any team in it gets to the second round of the postseason at +135. I could see the 76ers doing it if Joel Embiid was healthy, but naturally he's expected to miss at least the Play-In following an appendectomy last week. Any Play-In team to reach the conference finals is +550. Check out other expert picks in the daily newsletter.

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