UFC 328 predictions

What: UFC 328

Where: Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.

When: Saturday, May 9. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 7 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 9 p.m. ET with the entire event streaming live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Khamzat Chimaev (1, P4P-4) vs. Sean Strickland (3)

Before we get to Sean Strickland’s chances of handing Khamzat Chimaev his first loss, let’s consider Chimaev’s two closest calls.

Gilbert Burns took Chimaev to a thrilling decision with a combination of takedown defense, decent boxing, and flat-out toughness. The since-retired welterweight veteran has always had elite grappling, so it wasn’t surprising to see him keep the fight upright and force the less experienced Chimaev to fight his fight. Chimaev’s coaches later said the plan was to take Burns down and Chimaev instead chose to brawl, but I think Burns had some say in the action staying on the feet.

Kamaru Usman fell prey to Chimaev’s wrestling early, but survived being stuck on his back and went on to make it a fight for the next two rounds. Again, Chimaev’s striking and cardio were put into question when he wasn’t able to implement Plan A.

So, can Strickland match Burns and Usman’s efforts to avoid a fast finish? More importantly for him, what can he do to surpass what they did and actually beat Chimaev?

Stuffing takedowns is key (duh), but if Strickland can generate offense off of those takedowns that will send Chimaev a message and also accelerate the rate at which Chimaev’s gas tank drains. Keeping Chimaev on the outside is also key, so it’s a good thing for Strickland that distance control is one of his strengths. All Strickland has to do is win three rounds and that’s well within the realm of possibility.

But I can’t pick against Chimaev, who is at the top of my “I don’t believe this guy can lose until he loses” list. He made it look easy against Dricus du Plessis and I’m not sold on Strickland effectively stopping Chimaev’s takedowns and avoiding ground-and-pound. His wrestling is just such an unstoppable weapon right now, all I can see is Chimaev pinning a fuming Strickland to the mat, wailing on him, and then choking him out to retain the title.

Pick: Chimaev

Joshua Van (2, P4P-16) vs. Tatsuro Taira (5)

I expect grappling to be the main talking point of the co-main event as well.

Tatsuro Taira has proven to be a brilliant ground fighter and his main focus will be to take Joshua Van to the mat and go to work. We’ve also seen Taira’s striking rapidly improve, to the point that if Van wants to stand and bang, Taira won’t hesitate to oblige.

Van is shockingly well-rounded at just 24 years old and, like Taira, seems to improve exponentially between UFC appearances. His standup style is high volume with plenty of precision and he won’t be timid in his first title defense. “The Fearless” has spent the past five months hearing about how he’s a paper champion, so expect him to let out his frustrations on Taira.

I confess, I’ve disrespected Van not having him ranked as my No. 1 flyweight and I’m disrespecting him again here. Taira is a little further along in his development at this point and I’m done calling him a “future” champion. The time is now. Taira is able to implement his ground game for as long as this one lasts before taking the title via submission or ground-and-pound TKO.

And New.

Pick: Taira

Alexander Volkov (4) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (6)

Can Alexander Volkov avoid the judges?

It’s been a screwy two-fight run for Volkov, who has seen both sides of a split decision after frustrating bouts against Jailton Almeida and Ciryl Gane. I’m curious to see if his team has put an added emphasis on finishing Waldo Cortes-Acosta to avoid the scorecards altogether or if they’re confident that Volkov doesn’t need to deviate from the game plan because he should be 3-0 anyway.

Cortes-Acosta’s approach should be the same as usual: Stay loose on the feet, wait for openings to land big punches, and maybe even mix in some wrestling. It’s likely Volkov will shoot first to shut down Cortes-Acosta’s offense, but we know “Salsa Boy” can grapple a little so it might behoove him to surprise Volkov and act as the initiator. As far as heavyweight fights go, this will be more on the chess side of things than a brawl.

In that case, I’m picking Volkov, even if his three-round results have been unpredictable as of late. He has the experience edge, a slight size advantage, and hey, maybe he’s figured out how to convincingly win over the judges again. Or not.

Pick: Volkov

Sean Brady (8) vs. Joaquin Buckley (11)

I haven’t given up on Sean Brady as a legitimate welterweight title challenger, though I agree with the popular sentiment that this is a do-or-die situation for both him and Buckley as far as their championship hopes go.

The contender picture at 170 pounds is so tight right now that one loss can set you way back, which Brady and Buckley know all too well after having winning streaks dashed by Michael Morales and Kamaru Usman, respectively. Two straight losses? In this economy? Ruinous.

Buckley trained with Usman for this fight, which adds an intriguing wrinkle to the mix as wrestling remains one of Buckley’s weaknesses and spending time with one of the best welterweights ever can only help. It better, because Brady won’t hesitate to make this one ugly if Buckley’s striking is sharp early.

Brady has always shined when it comes to properly mixing the martial arts and it’s his versatility that has me picking him to stifle Buckley’s offense while doing plenty of damage of his own. He doesn’t have to be flashy or force a finish. He just needs to win and outside of his stumbles against Morales and Belal Muhammad, he knows how to do that as well as anyone in the division.

Watch for Brady to put on a show for the rowdy Philadelphians making the trip to Jersey to support their boy.

Pick: Brady

King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens

Jeremy Stephens hasn’t won a UFC fight since 2018 and I don’t expect that to change tonight.

Kudos to the matchmakers for the age-appropriate pairing, but King Green has shown he can do more than just compete with the current crops of lightweights, while Stephens’ last UFC win came at 145 pounds. Yes, Green’s cavalier fighting style means he can lose on any given night especially against a guy with Stephens’ punching power; no, I don’t expect Green to suffer a classic self-inflicted loss this time around.

In our live chats this week, I’ve seen a lot of fans asking “Why is Jeremy Stephens back in the UFC” and, related, “Why does Jeremy Stephens want to be back in the UFC?” Harsh as it sounds, the 21-year (!) veteran is giving off a just-happy-to-be-here vibe and that’s not going to cut it against someone with Green’s supreme confidence. As goofy as Green can get on fight night, you always get the sense he genuinely believes he’s one of the 10 best lightweights in the world. There’s a real mentality difference there.

Green’s speed and craftiness give him the clear edge and as long as he doesn’t play around and eat a Stephens haymaker, he should cruise to a decision win.

Pick: Green

Preliminaries

Ateba Gautier def. Ozzy Diaz

Joel Alvarez def. Yaroslav Amosov (14)

Grant Dawson def. Mateusz Rebecki

Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon

Marco Tulio def. Roman Kopylov

Pat Sabatini def. William Gomis

Baisangur Susurkaev def. Djorden Santos

Clayton Carpenter def. Jose Ochoa