UFC Perth preview and predictions: Jack Della Maddalena or Carlos Prates — who wins?

170 pounds: Jack Della Maddalena (-105) vs. Carlos Prates (-115)

Della Maddalena and Prates are doing the heavy lifting at UFC Perth, because welterweight matchups don’t get much better than this one. This fight essentially carries the night, demanding your undivided attention if you’re even the slightest fan of fisticuffs.

Della Maddalena’s stock is sputtering after his one-sided title loss to Islam Makhachev, as is reflected by the odds. While this fight is listed fairly at near-even odds, Prates’ style is nowhere close to that of Makachev’s. Few are, in fact. And for that, the former champ’s latest setback can — and should — be almost disregarded entirely.

This will be a kickboxing match in an MMA cage. Plain and simple. Della Maddalena has some of the cleanest, most beautiful boxing in the sport. His performance against Belal Muhammad to win the welterweight title shouldn’t be forgotten. Against Prates, he’ll have to worry about a much more versatile striking offense coming his way.

In his past two fights, Prates has made a name for himself by knocking out those who haven’t been knocked out before. Della Maddalena would make for a third straight.

Whoever dictates the pace faster in this one should gain the advantage. Prates tends to wait patiently and let his incredible highlights develop, and it’s only cost him against Ian Machado Garry, but Della Maddalena has all the tools and durability to replicate a similar — and potentially more efficient — game plan.

At its core, UFC Perth’s headliner is a matter of technique against versatility. “JDM” is the sharper of the two, and should be defensively sound enough to deal with any of the Brazilian’s explosive salvos. No matter the outcome, a finish would be a surprise in this one. That means we’re more likely in for an excellent 25-minute firefight.

Pick: Della Maddalena

155 pounds: Beneil Dariush (+360) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-500)

I’ve been riding the Dariush dark horse train as long as anybody. In terms of experience and competition level, this fight shouldn’t even be close. Just stylistically alone, he should be a nightmare for Salkilld. There’s just one issue I can no longer ignore after Benoit Saint Denis starched him in 16 seconds in November.

Dariush’s chin has degraded to a point that it’s thinner than graphene.

He’s been far too hittable since his 2023 loss to Charles Oliveira. Salkilld is another long, rangy striker, with speed on his side. The oddsmakers may still be showing a hint of disrespect to “Benny,” but his time is up, with his best hopes here being to spam the takedown button within 10 seconds of each round — if more than one is even needed.

Pick: Salkilld

125 pounds: Tim Elliott (+185) vs. Steve Erceg (-225)

Oddly, Steve Erceg is kind of the Tim Elliott of this generation: The unlikely title contender, who did far better in his bid for gold than anyone anticipated.

Ultimately, the showdown between these two will come down to discipline, specifically in the takedown defense department for Erceg. It’s no secret where Elliott excels, chaining together grappling sequences brilliantly and finding submissions in the process. He’s a gritty, tough veteran unlike any other at 125 pounds. His strikes typically come in awkward patterns — think akin to the Keith Jardine days, but with a larger wrestling threat.

Erceg offers up clean combinations with his hands and holds the clear striking edge in this fight. He’ll deliver damage that outweighs any volume from Elliott. As long as any bad positions are avoided, this makes for a happy homecoming for “Astro Boy.”

Pick: Erceg

Marwan Rahiki looks to make it two-for-two in the UFC.

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)

145 pounds: Marwan Rahiki (-750) vs. Ollie Schmid (+530)

I’m starting to annoy myself with how often the term “showcase fight” gets mentioned every week. Yet, here we are again, talking about an overwhelming favorite.

An undefeated 8-0 Moroccan, Marwan Rahiki made a dominant UFC debut just a month ago, breaking Harry Hardwick’s jaw in the process. With a meager 4-2 professional record, Schmid seems to be getting thrown to the wolves, far from UFC caliber, especially given that the combined record of his opponents is 11-12-3 — with just two of them having ever even won a fight. Period.

Rahiki is a killer who does everything better than Schmid. This fight shouldn’t be happening, especially in the premier MMA organization.

Pick: Rahiki

265 pounds: Shamil Gaziev (+110) vs. Brando Peričić (-135)

Heavyweight might be an overall dumpster fire in 2026, but Shamil Gaziev has at least been relatively consistent.

The Bahrainian has been a game striker, throwing down with most of his opponents while also keeping some serviceable wrestling in his back pocket. Competition-wise, he has the edge over Brando Pericic, who’s still finding his footing. The Australian has clear power, so this could come down to who lands first. But most fights in this division right now are almost all coin flips, especially the further down the totem pole you go.

Pick: Gaziev

265 pounds: Tai Tuivasa (-220) vs. Louie Sutherland (+180)

UFC might actually hate its audience by putting two heavyweight bouts on the main card of UFC Perth.

Tai Tuivasa is essentially just being rolled out for fan service at this point, as he attempts to snap his six-fight skid. Clearly, this matchup with Louie Sutherland is his best chance, as the big man was finished in less than two minutes in each of his first two UFC fights.

This has sloppy slugfest written all over it, and that bodes extremely well for Tuivasa. The stank of that Tallison Teixeira fight from February is strong, though. Even in a winnable fight, any faith I may have once had in Tuivasa coming through has been lost.

Pick: Sutherland

Gerald Meerschaert can extend his UFC record at UFC Perth.

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)

Preliminary Notes

Cameron Rowston remains a promising prospect in the middleweight division. He gets a good step-up against Robert Bryczek in a home game, which could be telling for how far he can go.

Elsewhere, Gerald Meerschaert is still hanging around in hopes of snapping a four-fight skid. As one of the best get-or-get-got fighters of the past decade, he can never be counted out, and the odds in favor of an unproven Jacob Malkoun are quite frankly absurd. Meerschaert should rightfully be the underdog in his fight, but the guy is always fun to watch.

Quick picks:

• Cameron Rowston (-180) def. Robert Bryczek (+145)
• Junior Tafa (-210) def. Kevin Christian (+170)
• Gerald Meerschaert (+700) def. Jacob Malkoun (-1100)
• Vince Morales (+110) def. Colby Thicknesse (-135)
• Ben Johnston (-150) def. Wesley Schultz (+125)
• Jonathan Micallef (-250) def. Themba Gorimbo (+200)
• Kody Steele (-190) def. Dom Mar Fan (+155)