UFC Vegas 116’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Sterling vs. Zalal

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vegas 116 Main Card Money Line Odds

Aljamain Sterling (+120) vs. Youssef Zalal (-142)

**Sterling’**s last fight was his bizarre contest with Brian Ortega back in Aug. 2025 (details here). Ortega looked like death warmed up on the scales for that fight and that carried over to the bout itself. The fight, which was forced to be at 155 pounds, saw Sterling essentially fighting a training dummy. He won with a lopsided unanimous decision. That was Sterling’s first fight since he lost to Movsar Evloev by decision. Sterling has competed just three times since he lost the title to Sean O’Malley in 2023. This isn’t due to injury, though. It’s because of his much-publicized fractious relationship with UFC brass.

Zalal, meanwhile, has charged up the 145-pound rankings since he re-signed with the company in 2024. He’s won five straight since March 2023, scoring finishes in all but one fight. Last time out, he arm-barred Josh Emmett in around 90 seconds (re-live that here). Before that, he dominated Calvin Kattar for a decision in a fight where it looked like Zalal was playing with his food a little too much. This run has Zalal on an eight-fight win streak (10 if you count some boxing and kickboxing side quests he had along the way). He was cut from UFC before that run started after he went 0-3-1. During that time, he lost a decision to Ilia Topuria. He and Emmett are the only men to go the distance with Topuria.

This is a hard fight to pick. It’s hard to know where Sterling is at when we don’t see him that often and considering the weirdness around his last fight. We’ve only seen him three times at Featherweight and two of those opponents didn’t really show up (that’s including his fight versus the anemic Kattar).

I’m sure that Zalal is going to provide more resistance than Ortega and Kattar did. The big question is whether his game is suited to defeat Sterling. Both these guys love a back take and love to control and tire their opponents. Zalal is more immediately interested in submissions, though.

Sterling is a great wrestler, but can he out-wrestle guys at Featherweight, where he’s almost always going to be the smaller guy? He couldn’t do it against Evloev. Zalal is not Evloev, but he does have a big size advantage working in his favor.

Zalal is also the better striker. On paper their stats are very similar. Sterling’s significant strike accuracy is 52 percent and Zalal’s is 50 percent. If we were just looking at strikes when standing, I suspect Zalal’s number would be much higher than Sterling’s, though. They both have good striking defense, too. Sterling defends 59 percent of significant strikes thrown his way. Zalal defends 66 percent.

If this is a kickboxing match, then I think Zalal wins it quite comfortably. It might go that way. I can see Sterling and Zalal both thinking they have the advantage on the feet and thus wanting to press their luck there.

The most exciting way this fight could go is if both men throw themselves into grappling exchanges and look for submissions. I favor Zalal in that scenario, too, since he has amazing flexibility, body awareness and quickness in those grappling transitions. His size would also be a big help there, too.

Since I like Zalal in both the scenarios I see happening, I’ve got to go with him. That being said, I still think there’s a chance Sterling is able to pull this one out.

Best bet: Youssef Zalal moneyline (-142)

Norma Dumont (-245) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+200)

Dumont has won her last six fights. However, because of her inactivity, it’s hard to say she’s got much momentum. Her last fight back in Nov. 2025 was a split decision win over Ketlen Vieira. Her prior fight to that was in Sept. 2024 in The Sphere. That’s where she literally rearranged Irene Aldana’s face. Before that, she took a decision over the ghost of Germaine de Randamie.

Edwards is on a four-fight win streak, but her four fights have all been over the last two years. And they have all been finishes, too. Last year she submitted Nora Cornolle (see it here), after crushing her shoulder with a nasty body lock takedown. And before that, she obliterated Priscila Cachoeria (see it here). Edwards has made weight in her last three fights, something she’s only managed one other time in her UFC career.

This is a great fight and I’m not mad at it being our co-main event. These two could bite down on the mouthpiece and have a very exciting brawl this weekend.

Edwards has looked very dynamic during her run and I think she has a great shot at out-landing and possibly hurting Dumont. Dumont has taken out the bigger names lately, but she was sensational in that Aldana fight, only. She could have easily lost the decision against Vieira.

Edwards has a slight reach and height advantage on Dumont. Her straight punches have looked very good lately, though. Despite being smaller, Dumont will have the strength advantage. She’s a lot thicker than Edwards and that should help her in the clinch and against the fence.

I just have a feeling we’re seeing a better Edwards than we’re used to at the moment, though. Her making weight might suggest that she’s taking fighting more seriously than ever and that might be why we’re seeing her perform better than we expect.

If she makes weight this week, I think she’s a very live dog. I’m taking her with the points, though, since I’d like a little insurance. I don’t think Dumont knocks her out, so I think we’re either seeing an Edwards stoppage or a close decision. Perfect recipe, for me, for a +3.5 play.

Best bet: Joselyne Edwards +3.5 (-160)

Rafa Garcia (+110) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-130)

Garcia showed a lot of heart to get a win over Jared Gordon in Sept. 2024, finishing his fellow veteran with elbows on the ground (see it here). Before that he took a decision over Vinc Pichel. The 31 year-old is now 6-4 in the Octagon.

Hernandez’s last fight fell through, famously, due to some betting irregularities. The betting activity suggested that Hernandez might have been compromised going into that fight with Michael Johnson. That incident mars what was a great run for Hernandez. He is still on a four-fight win streak, though, with finishes over Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper.

I’m willing to throw out the weirdness over Hernandez’s last fight booking. When I do that, I can just focus on this really impressive run he’s been on. During the run both his striking and grappling have looked better than ever and he’s been really smart about using those different skills in the correct situations. He’s been able to out-box his grapple-heavy opponents and then ground his striking-heavy opponents.

Garcia is well-rounded, too, but he’s more a wrestler than a striker. I think Hernandez — who has size over Garcia — will be able to win the exchanges on the feet and will be able to defend against Garcia’s attempts to take him down.

Best bet: Alexander Hernandez moneyline (-130)

Davey Grant (-142) vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (+120)

Grant was blown up by a Charles Jourdain flying knee in his last fight (see it here). That ruined a nice little run for the Englishman. He’d beaten Da’Mon Blackshear and Ramon Tavares by decision and looked a lot more spry than you’d expect from a 40-year-old.

Martinetti is debuting here, after an impressive win on Contender Series. On the feeder show he threw down with Mark Vologdin (who we saw last weekend). He won the fight, which UFC’s YouTube channel called THE GREATEST FIGHT EVER, by decision. Martinetti is 17-1 now, but he’s only fought on the South American scene.

I think this is a really close fight. Martinetti indulged Vologdin in having a fire fight with him, but he was also looking for takedowns here and there. I don’t think he’s going to stand and bang with everyone he faces in UFC.

Grant is also very versatile and will look to mix striking and wrestling when it makes most sense. This fight is tough, because it asks whether Grant’s experience and late career surge is enough to take out the neophyte Martinetti or whether Grant’s age has caught up with him.

Martinetti is not one of these killers who has come off Contender Series lately, so I don’t think Grant is in danger of getting smoked like poor Dennis Buzukja did last week. But, I do think there is a chance Martinetti is able to land some good shots and then have space to breathe (unlike he did with Vologdin) before going to his wrestling.

I’m going to go for the over here, since I’m too chicken to pick a winner. I just don’t know how much stock to put in Grant getting destroyed by Jourdain — since Jourdain might be a title contender in this division.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-166)

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Montel Jackson (-180) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+150)

Jackson had a chance, recently, to become a name at Bantamweight. But, he laid an egg. He rode his six-fight win streak into a fight with Deiveson Figueiredo, but then lost to the former UFC champ by split decision. I think the split decision was kinder to Jackson than he deserved.

Barcelos, on the other hand, is on a great run at the moment. He’s won four in a row and he blew up on our radars after handing Payton Talbott a decision loss in Jan. 2025 (as a +710 underdog). After that he took decisions over Cody Garbrandt and Ricky Simon.

I like Barcelos in this fight. Jackson was tentative in the Figueiredo fight and just wouldn’t pull the trigger. He spent a lot of his time just standing straight up and starring at the former champ. Barcelos is not afraid to pull the trigger. He is always looking to make something happen and that is what took Talbott off his game and has lead to Barcelos racking up these impressive wins lately.

I can see Barcelos getting his head on Jackson’s chest and forcing him to have a dirty, ugly fight against the cage. Jackson won’t like that and I don’t think he has the physicality or the will to force a guy like Barcelos to back off of him.

Jackson has a ton of size on Barcelos. But, he had that on Figureido, too. And Barcelos has had success as the smaller man, too.

Best bet: Raoni Barcelos moneyline (+150)

Marcus Buchecha (-155) vs. Ryan Spann (+130)

The Buchecha experiment has not gone well in UFC. In his debut, he was picked apart by Martin Buday for a decision loss. After that he fought to a very forgettable draw with Kennedy Nzechukwu. He would have lost that if not for the point deduction Nzechukwu received for an eye poke.

Spann moved up to Heavyweight last year. In his first bout he was TKO’d by Waldo Cortes-Acosta. No shame in that given Waldo’s 2025 run. Spann rebounded by beating Lukasz Brzeski with his trademark guillotine.

I like Spann here.

Buchecha got his takedowns in round one against Nzechukwu, but couldn’t do anything with them. And Spann is a better grappler than Nzechukwu. Buchecha was then tired in the second round. That’s an improvement on him being tired in the first round, which we saw in his debut. I think Spann’s speed and athleticism is going to make Buchecha struggle for his early takedowns and the cardio gap will be significant after that.

A tired Buchecha really lurches into his takedowns. If he does that, his neck is going to be out there for that ‘Spann-atine’. I know, the idea of Buchecha being submitted in the Octagon seems strange. But we’ve seen submission aces come into the UFC and get finished on the ground before (see Rodolfo Vieira, who fights later on this card).

Buchecha’s lack of striking is also a big factor in this fight. He has offered zero offense on the feet in his first two fights. His lack of striking means his takedowns are totally naked and thus easier to avoid. In this fight, it’s another reason why Spann might be able to stay on his feet.

I don’t think this will be a fun one, but I think there’s a chance this could be the last act in the Buchecha-UFC era.

Best bet: Ryan Spann moneyline (+130)

UFC Vegas 116 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Jackson McVey (-205) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+170)

Dumas was supposed to be McVey’s debut opponent in UFC. But, Dumas’ ankle monitor scuppered that deal. McVey would end up debuting opposite Brunno Ferreira one month later and was quickly submitted. McVey was then submitted by Zach Reese back in Nov. 2025 (see that here).

Dumas fought Reese after his canceled fight with McVey. That ended with a nut shot from hell, which rendered Dumas unable to compete and possibly reproduce. After that, he lost to Donte Johnson by guillotine (see it here).

Dumas is the underdog — what’s up with that?

I know he’s an odd duck and all and plenty of folks want to see him lose due to his off-field problems. But McVey hasn’t shown us anything in the Octagon yet, albeit against opponents better than Dumas.

McVey is yet to stop a takedown in UFC — he’s 0-4 in attempts to do so. I think Dumas probably gets him down and then tests McVey’s submission defense (which has failed thus far in his UFC outings).

Dumas is not good on the feet, so there’s a chance McVey finds success there. In the Reese fight, McVey favored a Muay Thai clinch approach. Being that close to Dumas puts him at risk of being wrestled down to the ground, though.

I’ll take Dumas here, since we’re still waiting to see what McVey actually does well.

Best bet: Sedriques Dumas moneyline (+170)

Rodolfo Vieira (-278) vs. Eric McConico (+225)

Vieira suffered a scary knockout in his last fight. Bo Nickal was beating him to the punch early on and then he laid him out with a brutal head kick (see it here). That dropped the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace to 6-4 in UFC. He had won his last fight, a unanimous decision over Tresean Gore. Before that, he was decisioned by Andre Petroski.

McConico was floored by hot prospect Baisangur Susurkaev in Nov. 2025 (see it here). He was doing well up to that third round finish, though. Before that, he earned his first UFC win with a split decision over Cody Brundage. McConico was signed to the promotion, on short notice, last year to take on Nursulton Ruziboev. He lost that fight via knockout.

I don’t think the odds should be this far apart on this.

I think Vieira is going to be desperate for takedowns in this one. He might get them. McConico’s takedown defense isn’t exactly elite. But if he misses early and tires himself out, he might see himself getting pot-shotted from range (McConico has a four inch reach advantage) and then losing a decision.

If Vieira can get the takedown, though, then he should be able to control McConico on the ground. I expect Vieira might go into this one knowing that he needs to utilize his BJJ in MMA to be successful and that he can’t risk getting hurt like he did against Nickal again.

Though, it’s a bit of a toss-up, I’m going to go for Vieira here and think he’s going to go with a grapple forward approach and that McConico is just not potent enough to starch him on the feet as he tries to do that.

Best bet: Rodolfo Vieira moneyline (-278)

Mayra Bueno Silva (+320) vs. Michelle Montague (-410)

Bueno Silva is winless since she lost to Raquel Pennington in 2024 for the vacant UFC Bantamweight title. Since that awful fight, she was stopped by Macy Chiasson due to a brutal cut (see it here) and lost dominating decisions to rising talents Jasmine Jasudavicius and Jacqueline Cavalcanti.

Montague stayed undefeated when she took a decision over Luana Carolina in her promotional debut in Sept. 2024. Prior to that, she had impressed in PFL/Bellator, scoring finishes over Abby Montes and Marilia Morais.

MBS has really slow down lately and she’s looked quite inert in recent bouts. She moves forwards well, but just hasn’t been pulling the trigger much. She landed just 39 sig. strikes on Cavalcanti. Cavalcanti lit her up for 80, mostly while moving backwards. Bueno Silva landed even less against Jasudavicius.

Montague is big and strong and she’s also active. She moves forwards and is very aggressive with her body lock takedowns. She doesn’t just lay and pray either, she is busy with her ground strikes and was able to really wear down Carolina in her debut.

If Bueno Silva is going to plod forwards in this one, I think she’s going to walk right into Montague’s bodylock. Montague has a lot of size over her, so I think she’s probably going to be taking her for a ride. I see this being a pretty dominant decision win for Montague. I’d take her minus the points if it were available.

I’ll go with the over here, since I do respect Bueno Silva’s submission defense.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-215)

Jafel Filho (-625) vs. Cody Durden (+455)

Filho was due to meet Lucas Rocha before his countryman pulled out. Filho won his last fight back in Oct. 2025, submitting Clayton Carpenter with a kimura. Before that, he lost a fun decision to Allan Nascimento. The Nova Uniao man is now 3-2 in UFC.

Durden badly needs a win. He’s lost his last four fights and six of his last seven. That poor run started with Durden believing he had those Canelo hands, before being dropped and beat up by guys like Bruno Silva, Joshua Van and Jose Ochoa. He’s gone back to his wrestling since then, but that hasn’t helped much. Last time out he was totally out-grappled by Nyamjargal Tumendemberel.

This is a horrible match-up for Durden. He’s been schooled on the ground by Nascimento and Tumendemberel lately. And Filho is a terror down there. If Durden takes him down, I think Filho is going to sweep him or put him in trouble off his back.

If Durden tries to stand and bang, I don’t think he can overwhelm Filho there. And if things are getting too spicy in the exchanges, I think Filho is capable of wrapping up Durden and getting him in danger with his grappling.

I only have the moneylines available right now, but I would take Filho by submission. Or I would look at the under, especially if the total is set at 2.5.

Best bet: Jafel Filho by submission

Talita Alencar (+215) vs. Julia Polastri (-265)

Alencar has won two in a row. In Nov. 2025, she submitted Ariane Carnelossi. Before that, she took a decision over Vanessa Demopoulos. She’s 3-1 in UFC with the other win being a split decision over Rayanne dos Santos and the loss being to Stephanie Luciano (who she drew with on Contender Series).

Polastri looked great in her last fight. She stalked and beat up former title challenger Karolina Kowalkieiwicz before putting her down with a head kick in the third (see it here). That evened her UFC record at 2-2. Her two losses are to Loopy Godinez and Josefine Knutsson, both by decision.

I’ve been impressed with Alencar lately, but not as impressed as I was with Polastri in her last fight. Polastri is really versatile. Her striking was on point in her last fight, but she also has good takedowns. Alencar is going to be desperate for a takedown, but I think Polastri and stay standing long enough to cause some damage on the feet. She’ll also have a six inch reach advantage to help her in that endeavor.

Best bet: Julia Polastri moneyline (-265)

Max Griffin (+124) vs. Victor Valenzuela (-148)

Griffin is on a two fight losing skid. His last fight was all the way back in July. That’s when he dropped a split decision to Chris Curtis. Before that he was submitted by Michael Chiesa, in the penultimate fight of the Maverick’s career. Griffin is now 8-10 in UFC action.

Valenzuela lost his Contender Series fight back in October, by TKO. He’s been signed here, though, since this card was light on fights due to other pull-outs. He’s 32 and 13-4 as a pro. Most of his work has been done in Combate.

Valenzuala is a wild man. He swings for the fences and leaves his chin out there to be touched. I’m not sure if Griffin is the guy to make him pay for that, though.

Valenzuela is also very small for this division. He’s just 5’9” with only 71 inches of reach. Griffin will be taller and much longer. Given that Valenzuela’s best punches are his hooks, I think he will struggle to land those in this fight. And if he does land, Griffin should be able to eat it. He’s only been stopped once in his career; a TKO on the ground to a prime Colby Covington. He’s gone the distance with Michael Morales, Carlos Condit, Alex Oliveira, Mike Perry and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

I think Griffin is probably going to be able to stay out of trouble and force this fight into the fence and onto the ground to earn a decision.

Best bet: Max Griffin moneyline (+124)

Lucas Brennan (+410) vs. Francis Marshall (-550)

“Skywalker” Brennan gets a short notice call-up here to help make up the numbers at UFC Vegas 116. He’s never appeared on a UFC property before. He did go 9-0 in Bellator, though he didn’t fight anyone recognizable over there. He’s 25 and 11-2.

“Fire” Marshall improved his record to 9-3 in February, taking out Erik Silva with a first round submission. Before that, he lost a split decision to Mairon Santos. That was a robbery, though.

I don’t see any reason to doubt the lines here. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Marshall. He’s a good wrestler who doesn’t totally rely on the wrestling and is willing to mix it up on the feet to create openings for his takedowns. Brennan does over rely on his wrestling and is very raw on the feet. I think Marshall gets him out of there relatively early.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-120)

UFC Vegas 116 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Ryan Spann to win by submission (+800)

I really don’t rate Marcus Buchecha as a UFC fighter. He has looked out of shape and painfully one-dimensional so far. I think he gasses out and leaves his neck out there for a famous submission loss on Saturday.

Two-bet parlay: Raoni Barcelos + Eric McConico (+712)

Here’s an underdog I like and an underdog I really like. I think Barcelos is a terrible match-up for Montel Jackson. I can see him being a bulldog and taking Jackson totally out of his comfort zone (something Jackson seems to really rely on). McConico is more of an outside shot. He’s shown improvement, but he’s still got a tough task in the form of Rodolfo Vieira. If McConico can stay on his feet, though, I think he’s got a chance of earning a decision.

Joselyne Edwards to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+1200)

I’m sold on Edwards. I think she’s really worked on her craft and she’s got some of the best power in her division. Dumont looked great a few years ago, but she’s so inactive and inconsistent that it’s hard to ever get too high on her.

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