UFC Vegas 117 predictions

You can’t hold Allen’s recent losses against him too much. Jean Silva, Movsar Evloev, and Max Holloway all got the better of Allen, but all three fights were competitive. It just feels like Allen is missing that extra gear to beat the elite, even though he’s so clearly a notch above the next tier of featherweights. To defeat Costa, he has to set the tone early and not let Costa rush him. He also can’t be discouraged if Costa refuses to go down easy, because the Brazilian is known to be able to take damage and dish it right back.

Five rounds benefits Allen and that’s going to make the difference here. Costa has never had to go the full 25 and while his cardio could be well up to the task, I need to see how he deals with Allen full-on pushing the pace before I make any bold proclamations about Costa’s title chances.

A close fight that I have Allen taking by decision.

Pick: Allen

Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos

Daniel Santos, you could have yourself a heck of a gimmick if you get past Doo Ho Choi.

Your memory isn’t playing tricks on you, Choi is the third straight South Korean opponent that Santos has had to face, with the past two wins of his current four-fight streak coming against Joo Sang Yoo and Jeong Yeong Lee. Choi is the most established of the three, but he’s also the oldest, and it’s fair to ask if “The Korean Superboy” is past his prime even though he was in fine form against age-appropriate opponents Nate Landwehr and Bill Algeo.

Santos is comfortable boxing, but loves to mix in takedowns when he finds an opening. He’s not overly aggressive looking to pass or attack with ground-and-pound, so Choi will have to be patient if he ends up on his back because Santos knows how to hold top position. Of course, simply stopping the fight from going to the ground is Choi’s best bet.

Choi might be a step behind Yoo and Lee athletically, but he’s a more seasoned striker than both and he’ll get the better of Santos on the feet. As long as his takedown defense holds, he should end up on the right side of an entertaining decision.

Pick: Choi

Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz

Malcolm Wellmaker learned some valuable lessons in his first-ever loss. Enough to put him back on track to be a future bantamweight champion?

A loss to Ethyn Ewing is nothing to be ashamed of given how Ewing has now put on two standout performances in the UFC, and that result should have pushed Wellmaker and his team to shore up some glaring weaknesses. When Wellmaker’s opponents stay on the center line, they’re easy pickings for the fast and powerful puncher. The evasive Ewing had him all out of sorts.

Juan Diaz excels when moving side to side and he has a potent jab as well, so if Wellmaker hasn’t leveled up, he could fall into the same traps as last time. The recent Contender Series contract winner methodically wears his opponents down while occasionally breaking out more flashy strikes, like his incredible spinning elbow knockout of Won Il Kwon.

Wellmaker’s right hook is his bread and butter and one or two good ones is all he need to shift the direction of the fight. He’ll look to counter early before ramping up the offense late, focusing on putting on a more measured performance as opposed to chasing a highlight. This one will be touch and go, but I have Wellmaker winning on the cards.

Pick: Wellmaker

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards

Modestas Bukauskas goes from fighting Rodolfo Bellato to a guy who used to fight for Bellator. How’s that for a bar, Drake?

(Not my best.)

Mediocre wordplay aside, this feels like an easy fight to call. Christian Edwards has debuted in 2019 as a modestly hyped prospect, with great physical measurements (peep that near 80-inch reach) and a solid team behind him at Jackson Wink. Unfortunately, he hasn’t evolved much over the course of 12 fights, relying on his physicality and a solid, but unspectacular skill set to get by. The 27-year-old still has promise, but he wouldn’t be getting the UFC call right now if Bellato hadn’t fallen out earlier this week.

Bukauskas is a dangerous kickboxer, capable of landing heavy blows from range and dishing out punishment inside. It’s rare he faces someone with such a noticeable size advantage, but Edwards is also well below his typical level of competition. Even give his occasional mental lapses, this should be an easy W for him.

I have Bukauskas via KO/TKO in Round 1.

Pick: Bukauskas

Timmy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Bernardo Sopaj’s UFC experience has seen him facing off with towering bantamweights so far, and Timmy Cuamba is no exception. As he has against Ricky Turcios and Vinicius Oliveira, Sopaj is giving up three inches of height and around five inches of reach, and as skilled as the 25-year-old prospect is, that’s going to catch up to him (it already did in the Oliveira loss).

Cuamba isn’t just tall either, he’s quick on his feet and with his hands. He loves to keep his distance and zing in straight punches when his opponent steps into range. He also knows how to use those long legs to his advantage, whether it’s launching a knee to the jaw or snapping out a head kick.

There’s a lot to like about Sopaj, who fights with a maturity beyond his years. Cuamba’s low output style could favor Sopaj if the Albanian can stay in Cuamba’s face and put on the pressure. Sopaj’s fundamentals are strong even if he isn’t the most dynamic talent at 135 pounds.

This is an important test for two up-and-comers who could have bright futures in the UFC. For now, I favor the rangier Cuamba to pull off the minor upset.

Pick: Cuamba

Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams

All hail Khaos Williams, The King of May, rightly back competing in his chosen month.

I’m rambling, but there was a strange stretch from 2022-2024 where Williams only competed in the fifth month, arising from his ancient slumber like the terrifying Tarrasque to satisfy his hunger. OK, he was only 2-1 during that stretch, but you get what I’m saying. It was an odd trend.

Veretennikov is coming off of a short-notice, job-saving win over Niko Price, but otherwise has struggled to find consistency in the UFC. At 36, “Gladiator” is no spring chicken and while he’s the type of solid veteran who can still serve as a test at 170 pounds, there’s not a lot of upside here.

tl;dr: I don’t pick against Khaos Williams in May. It is once again time for this mythical creature to feast.

Pick: Williams

Preliminaries

Ivan Erslan def. Tuco Tokkos

Tommy Gantt def. Artur Minev

Jacqueline Cavalcanti def. Ketlen Vieira

Andre Petroski def. Cody Brundage

Polyana Viana def. Alice Ardelean

Daniel Barez def. Luis Gurule

Nicolle Caliari def. Shauna Bannon