UFC Winnipeg preview, ‘Burns vs. Malott’ predictions

Gilbert “Durinho” Burns
Record: 22-9 | Age: 39 | Betting line: +280
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.15 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.64 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 2.12 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 53%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Michael Morales

“Proper” Mike Malott
Record: 13-2-1 | Age: 34 | Betting line: -355
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’1“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.93 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.06 | Striking Defense: 56%
Takedown Average: 1.88 (50% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 14%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision victory over Kevin Holland

Fighters are the first ones to know they’re washed but the last ones to admit it, which is why Gilbert Burns is still hanging on despite getting cooked in four straight fights. The Michael Morales loss was particularly concerning for longtime fans of the Brazilian because it placed “Durinho” in concussion protocol. It’s also worth mentioning that Burns turns 40 in July and is now ranked outside the Top 10 at 170 pounds. Offensively, the former welterweight title challenger is solid just about everywhere with above-average skills in jiu jitsu. The biggest issue Burns is facing as we head into the second half of 2026 is durability. It doesn’t really matter how hard you hit or the color of your jiu jitsu belt when you crumble at the first sign of adversity. That said, it could just be a matter of a opposition, as the four losses Burns has suffered in recent years all came at the hands of Top 5 competition.

“The Belal [Muhammad] fight, I got injured,” Burns told MMA Fighting. “No problem. I lost, Belal did his thing, became a champion right after that. Lost to Jack [Della Maddalena], was doing good for freaking 14 minutes until I ate a knee, got knocked out. Jack became a champion. Sean Brady, Top 5. Michael Morales, Top 5. These guys are the highest level in the division. So I’ve been doing a lot of good things too, but the results weren’t there.”

“I’m 40 this year,” Burns added. “I had a good career already. I’m going to Canada. I’m going to have fun. I’m going to go out there to do my thing. For sure, I want to win. For sure it’s a must-win but I’m not bringing all that heavy baggage that I’ve got to win. No, I’m going out there to do my best, showcase my skills. I do believe it’s a good matchup. It’s nothing easy but it is a good matchup and I’m putting all the pressure on this guy.”

Canadian fighters are a lot like English fighters in that we usually don’t see them unless the promotion travels internationally. To wit, Mike Malott has not left Canada in his last five UFC fights and has only competed twice per year dating back to early 2022. Originally a product of Dana White’s “Contender Series” in late 2021, Malott has compiled a 6-1 record inside the Octagon with four finishes and a pair of post-fight performance bonuses. “Proper” is a solid wrestler with knockout power and has shown dramatic improvement in his conditioning since dumping his tank in a loss to Neil Magny roughly two years back. In that sense, he’s a less dynamic Burns, assuming we’re talking about the Burns who nearly toppled Kamaru Usman at UFC 258 and took Khamzat Chimaev to the limit at UFC 273. Sadly, that Burns no longer exists.

“To be honest, I don’t have really any expectations for him,” Malott told Uncrowned. “But I know what I plan on doing. I know what I bring to the table, and I’m a lot more focused on that than I am on him. Just having my coaches and my training partners prepare me as best we possibly can. And I feel like we’ve prepared super well for this one. So I’ll just go in there and be free and be myself. When I do that, I’m almost undefeated in the UFC.”

“This is something I’ve been dreaming of since as a little kid,” Malott added. “I mean, even just getting to the UFC in general it feels big. Of course, my own goals and stuff, but I just can’t let it slip by without recognizing fighting in the UFC is something special, and to be the main event in the UFC is something even more special. I just love fighting in Canada. My first two fights in the UFC were awesome. Getting a fight in Jacksonville was sweet. I loved that. And then fighting at the Apex was cool too. That was an awesome opportunity and great to get in there and get a win and cool to have had a UFC fight in the Apex, but nothing beats fighting in Canada for me. I love it.”

Malott is 34 so it’s not like he’s some hot young prospect and whatever he’s gonna do in terms of making a run at the top, he’s got to do it now. His record is impressive but “Proper” hasn’t fought anyone currently ranked in the Top 15 while Burns has been out there fighting killers. That experience has come at a price, as I believe “Durinho” is too shopworn at this stage of his career to carry him across the finish line. Expect a strong start from the Brazilian followed by an unceremonious collapse.

Prediction: Malott def. Burns by technical knockout

135 lbs.: Charles Jourdain vs. Kyler Phillips

Charles “Air” Jourdain
Record: 17-8-1 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -150
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 6 DEC
Height: 5’9“ | Reach: 69” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.48 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.25 | Striking Defense: 56%
Takedown Average: 0.33 (21% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 47%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Davey Grant

Kyler “The Matrix” Phillips
Record: 12-4 | Age: 30 | Betting line: +125
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.04 | Striking accuracy: 42%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.83 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 2.31 (45% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Vinicius Oliveira

Charles Jourdain has been with UFC for seven years and in that time has managed to hover at or around the .500 mark, currently standing at 8-7-1 in 16 trips to the Octagon. The promotion keeps him around because he’s Canadian and local talent sell tickets and keep the International business thriving. In addition, Jourdain has captured post-fight performance bonuses in three of his last five contests, so if you have a reputation for exciting fights, you’ll never be out of work. Of his 17 victories, only two have gone to the judges’ scorecards and “Air” is riding the momentum of back-to-back submission wins over Victor Henry and Davey Grant. On the downside, Jourdain has never won three straight fights in UFC so statistically speaking, the odds are against him.

“I finished Victor Henry, who had never been finished,” the former featherweight said at the UFC Winnipeg media day. “Destroyed Davey Grant like nobody has ever done to him. And now destroying Kyler Phillips, who’s never been finished — I’ll be the first one to put a decisive victory on him. Because you know, winning by decision is something; but me, when you need to expect fire at bantamweight, I truly believe I can finish all these guys.”

“Sometimes fighters have a tendency to reinvent themselves,” Jourdain added. “I’ve done it myself. Reinvent yourself. But if he reinvents himself, he’s not going to be peak Kyler. Or if he fights like Kyler fights, we’ve prepared a toolbox ready to destroy and counter anything he’s bringing. So whatever version Kyler will bring, we’ll be able to destroy.”

Kyler Phillips had a strange start to his UFC career, securing a dominant stoppage on the inaugural season of Dana White’s “Contender Series” in summer 2017 and not winning a UFC contract but instead, a spot on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27. Phillips would lose to Brad Katona in the quarterfinals and have to spend another two years on the regional scene before getting called back up. The result is a 6-3 record, one failed drug test (Ostarine), and a two-fight losing streak heading into UFC Winnipeg. Not surprisingly, “The Matrix” is unranked at 135 pounds and in a lot of ways, lost in the shuffle. With only one finish in the last five years and a 31st birthday just around the corner, Phillips needs to find second gear and he needs to find it fast.

“I’m gonna f*ck this dude up,” Phillips said during the UFC Winnipeg media day. “He’s a good opponent, but I know his antics, he likes to talk and say things, but I’m going to beat his ass. It’s a sick-ass match-up if you think of it. Dude, this guy, the way he fights is pretty exciting. The way I fight — like, I ain’t trying to convince myself saying things like that. But dude, this is a cool one. The way this guy has come up in the UFC from a young age and the way I’ve come up from a young age, and we’re now in our prime.”

“To see that and to see his recent success, and he’s come down from 145 and where I’m at — you’re just going to see me skyrocket. [Rankings] are like statistics, it’s just numbers. At the end of the day the cage shuts and I’m going to go in there to fight another dude. So I’m not really too worried about numbers or this and that. I’m just as much wanting to take him out as he’s wanting to get that number or whatever he’s looking for.”

Jourdain looks reborn at 135 pounds and was already fast to begin with using a high-volume offense and sneaky guillotine choke to mow down his opponents. The problems Phillips had against Rob Font and Vinicius Oliveira will be present here, as well, and I think “The Matrix” gets unplugged after a fun, high-octane exchange.

Prediction: Jourdain def. Phillips by submission

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Winnipeg main card predictions RIGHT HERE.