Vikings’ 2026 Schedule Includes a Painful “What If” Scenario

Sharp: Vikings Have 16th Hardest Schedule; Lions Have Easiest

According to Sharp, this is the pecking order for the easiest schedules, with No. 1 as the easiest:

1. Detroit Lions
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns
5. New York Jets
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Philadelphia Eagles
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. Indianapolis Colts
10. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Denver Broncos
12. New England Patriots
13. Tennessee Titans
14. Buffalo Bills
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
16. Minnesota Vikings
17. Green Bay Packers
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
19. Las Vegas Raiders
20. Atlanta Falcons
21. Los Angeles Chargers
22. Seattle Seahawks
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
24. New York Giants
25. Washington Commanders
26. Houston Texans
27. Chicago Bears
28. Los Angeles Rams
29. Dallas Cowboys
30. Carolina Panthers
31. Miami Dolphins
32. Arizona Cardinals

Sharp on his SOS model: “By leveraging projected win totals and current season data, Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule model provides a more accurate and insightful tool for assessing team schedules and forecasting performance. Historical data confirms these results. Year in and year out: Teams that are predicted to have the easiest schedule are far more likely to finish with winning records. Teams that are predicted to have the hardest schedules are far more likely to finish with losing records.”

“The vast majority of teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules finish the season with winning records. The vast majority of teams forecast to have losing records and predicted to have harder than average schedules finish the season with losing records. Are Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule projections accurate? Short answer: YES.”

The Vikings destroyed the Lions in Week 17 last year. Had that not occurred, the story about Minnesota’s 2026 schedule would be wholly different.

The Five-Game Win Streak

So, what happened? Once upon a time, after an embarrassing loss at the Seattle Seahawks in November 2025, Minnesota held a 4-8 record, with eyes on last place in the NFC North, an easy 2026 schedule, and the possible draft pick of running back Jeremiyah Love or safety Caleb Downs.

Then, the club got hot by doing these things:

1. Head coach Kevin O’Connell finally embraced the rushing offense, and that worked.
2. J.J. McCarthy matured on the fly, while Minnesota toppled poor defenses in the Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants.
3. Brian Flores’s defense peaked from a 2025 standpoint in December.

Yes, Minnesota went on a five-game winning streak, finishing with a winning record after a 4-8 start and coming one win away from winning the NFC North.

Detroit Lions center Graham Glasgow (60) stands over the football awaiting the snap against the Minnesota Vikings during second-quarter action at U.S. Bank Stadium, surveying the defensive front pre-play. Dec 25, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA: Glasgow prepares to initiate the play as both lines settle into position. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

Had the Vikings lost to the Lions in Week 17, they’d have one of the easiest 2026 schedules in the business, if not the easiest.

Home Opponents

The order of the Vikings’ schedule is not known, but the opponents have been readily available since mid-January.

Here’s who the Vikings will play at U.S. Bank Stadium:

• Atlanta Falcons
• Buffalo Bills
• Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions
• Green Bay Packers
• Indianapolis Colts
• Miami Dolphins
• Washington Commanders

The Bills haven’t played in Minnesota since 2018, when rookie Josh Allen stunned the Vikings with one of the most unexpected upsets of the season.

Miami shares a similar scheduling quirk. The Dolphins also haven’t visited Minnesota since 2018. The Vikings could finally face Tua Tagovailoa — now with the Falcons — after he missed their 2022 matchup at Hard Rock Stadium when he quarterbacked the Dolphins.

Indianapolis, however, has a unique history with the Vikings. The Colts will make their third consecutive trip to Minnesota, with the memory of their epic 2022 collapse still vivid.

Road Opponents

And for your possible trip around the country as a die-hard fan:

• Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions
• Green Bay Packers
• New England Patriots
• New Orleans Saints
• New York Jets
• San Francisco 49ers
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Assuming both are healthy, Drake Maye and Tyler Shough are two quarterbacks to watch. Vikings fans could get their first live look at Maye, whom Minnesota reportedly considered in the 2024 draft, and will also see Shough in a Saints uniform.

Detroit Lions fans erupt with energy inside Ford Field, filling the stands with noise and motion during first-quarter action against the Minnesota Vikings in a heated divisional clash. Nov 2, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA: The crowd creates an early-game atmosphere as the Lions host Minnesota. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images.

The road trip to San Francisco presents a trickier challenge. The Vikings haven’t played there since 2021, and their history at that stadium hasn’t been favorable.

Meanwhile, New Orleans stirs up old scar tissue for Vikings fans. Even seventeen years later, the sting of that NFC Championship Game still resonates whenever the two teams meet.

Overall, accept a middle-of-the-road schedule per difficulty — which would have been much easier if not for Minnesota’s December and January surge.