What to watch for in Sixers’ play-in battle vs. Orlando Magic

Jan 9, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) reacts after making a threee point shot against the Orlando Magic in the fourth quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Sixers find themselves in a battle for their playoff lives this week, with a single home win over the Orlando Magic standing between them and yet another postseason Celtics matchup. I can feel your excitement through the screen right now.

This is a tough one to pin down, thanks to absences on both sides during the previous three regular-season meetings, but respect for Tyrese Maxey has the Sixers as slight favorites in the eyes of many around the league. Here are a few of the important battles I’m keeping an eye on.

Philadelphia’s approach to the rebounding battle

Orlando has two main strengths as a team — they were an elite defensive rebounding team, and they get to the free-throw line at the second-highest rate in the league. Both of those stats speak to the choices they’ve made with their roster, assembling a group of big, athletic players in an attempt to build a two-way force. It may surprise you to learn that the Sixers are actually dead even with the Magic in offensive rebounding, tied for the 10th-best rate in the NBA. So the battle on the boards, unsurprisingly, could play a huge role on Wednesday night.

The numbers from this season’s Sixers-Magic games spell that out in neon letters. For comparison’s sake, here’s the percentage of halfcourt shot attempts each team rebounded in the three regular-season meetings:

Eliteoffensive rebounding efforts by the Sixers defined the two competitive games. But here’s why that matters. Orlando has been a dreadful offensive team for most of the last two years, and their halfcourt offense (17th) and transition offense (18th) are both below average compared to the NBA at large. The Magic’s secret sauce is that they are so good at ending possessions that they run up their volume of transition plays, outpacing most of the league in running off of live rebounds.

Philadelphia ended up on the wrong side of that dynamic in the Thanksgiving week massacre, when the Magic forced them into a rough offensive night and simply bulldozed them in transition. Nearly 21 percent of Orlando’s offensive possessions were transition plays that night, with Anthony Black and others putting on a show against a slow-to-retreat Sixers team. With their failed pursuit of second-chance possessions (not to mention a gaggle of turnovers), the Sixers opened the door for Orlando to step around their main weakness.

This sets up an interesting question for Nick Nurse’s coaching staff: how aggressive is too aggressive on the glass against the Magic? Finding the right balance of extending possessions and getting back will be front of mind coming into this one.

Speed vs. power

Both teams will come into this game feeling they have a personnel-based advantage to exploit on offense, and Orlando’s is no secret. Paolo Banchero is a bully ball practitioner who hopes to punish some size mismatches in Philadelphia’s lineup.

“He gets a lot done with his strength and size, just carving space, attacking with his shoulder hits, and things like that,” Nick Nurse said at Tuesday’s Sixers practice. “You’ve got to stand in there and be able to use your own physicality. We’ve got to have multiple coverages ready for him. I think showing him multiple bodies, especially in certain matchups, will be important for us.”

Engineering deeper touches and catches for Banchero will (presumably) be a point of emphasis for the Magic, particularly if Philadelphia lines up with Paul George and Kelly Oubre starting together as the nominal 3/4 combo. Dominick Barlow should be in consideration to start, and little-used forward Jabari Walker is a sneaky candidate for rotation minutes to deal with Banchero’s might. When the Magic can get their star forward closer to the rim, good things tend to happen, with Banchero scoring through smaller matchups and drawing a ton of fouls (he averages over eight free throws per game this season). Nurse is hinting they’ll send lots of pressure at Banchero in the middle, though, in an attempt to deny those deeper touches and make him a jumpshooter.

That’s where the advantage turns to the Sixers. Banchero has traded some threes in for two-point jumpers on the move, rarely succeeding at the level required to sustain an offense via midrange mastery. Not all of this is his fault, as the Magic have a severe lack of shooting that cramps the floor and prevents good catch-and-shoot opportunities, but if you can keep him above the free-throw line, he’ll settle for a fair amount of tough jumpers. And with Banchero’s desire to take those shots mixed with poor shooting around him, the Sixers will feel better about playing their base scheme and 2-3 zone than they do against most opponents. Philly used a 2-3 zone to make a strong second-half push in their second victory over the Magic in January.

On the other side of it, Orlando’s offseason acquisition of Desmond Bane was meant to add offensive juice to the backcourt while keeping their defensive identity intact, but the Magic have struggled to stop the Maxey/Edgecombe combo in the two matchups where Philly had both guards available. VJ Maxx combined for 69 points in the opening week meeting back in October, and another 35 in a more balanced Sixers effort in January. Up to this point, the length and strength the Magic boast at the point of attack has been neutralized by the Sixers’ speed.

Maxey’s lingering hand issue hasn’t stopped him from being a relatively efficient scorer, though it has depressed his pull-up attempts in games over the last few weeks. His comfort level handling the ball and getting into his normal diet of shots will be critical to keeping Orlando honest and not dumping too much on the rookie’s plate. If Maxey is gunshy against drop coverage and the Sixers utilize him more off-ball, I’d expect the Magic to try to jump Edgecombe with extreme pressure whenever they can, testing his handle in a more physical, playoff-esque environment.

Postseason P?

Put simply, these are the moments that Paul George was brought here for. Which is not to say he owes them a 30-point heater or the greatest defensive game in Sixers wing history, but that he at least a little bit owes them one on Wednesday night. After all, his 25-game suspension played a huge role in Philadelphia finishing outside of the top six, with one win the difference between a week off and a survive-and-advance battle.

George has been a fast starter for the Sixers recently, taking Joel Embiid’s role as the first-quarter flamethrower with the big man on the shelf, but the issue has been sustaining that level of play across four quarters. He appeared in only one of Philadelphia’s matchups with Orlando this season, offering 18-9-3 despite an 0/7 effort from three in the January meeting. On his end, George has gushed about how good he feels heading into the postseason.

“To start the year out not feeling all the way 100, but then end the year closer to 100, everybody’s noticed it,” George said recently. “I’m happier at home. My family, my parents notice it. My teammates notice it. It’s a weight lifted off my shoulders that I can just go out and focus on basketball and not on rehab.”

While much has been made of George’s improved burst and a return to form for his driving ability, his at-rim finishing is still levels below his usual output. George is shooting just 55% at the rim for the season and 56% post-suspension, per Cleaning the Glass, either of which would represent a career worst for George. His jumpshooting touch has been outstanding, but that final scoring level is important for both his own production and to set up drive-and-kick opportunities for their other perimeter threats.

With questions at center, inexperience for Edgecombe, and a rotation that figures to be eight or nine deep at best, George’s wisdom as a defender and communicator may be even more important. Often referred to as their defensive captain by Nurse, George will be at the heart of everything they do — one-on-one matchups with Banchero and Franz Wagner, timely help from the corners, and the all-important rebounding that could decide this game. It’d be a great time to start carving a legacy in Philly.