The Arizona Diamondbacks are currently 9-8, but concerns arise regarding potential regression in their starting pitchers, Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez. Both players have a significant negative difference between their ERA and xERA, indicating they may have been lucky so far this season.
Why Diamondbacks should be concerned about potential Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez regression originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are 9-8 and look to be an overall solid team this season. But there are some worries with the roster, including in the starting rotation.
But, looking on the surface, there doesn't seem to be any issue with Zac Gallen, and especially Eduardo Rodriguez. However, those two could be in store for some regression this season.
As @jayhaykid shared on Twitter/x, the Diamondbacks starters are both in the top four when it comes to the negative difference between their ERA and their xERA. They've gotten a bit lucky, and that luck could very easily run out this year.
"Largest gap between ERA and xERA (min. 50 BIP) -- negative direction: ... Eduardo Rodriguez: 0.50 ERA, 3.44 xERA (-2.94). Zac Gallen: 3.60 ERA, 6.29 xERA (-2.69)," @jayhaykid shared.
This is a concerning metric for the Diamondbacks starters, as their xERA's being so much worse than their actual ERA likely indicating some regression is on the horizon.
While it's not a surprise that Rodriguez won't continue to post his ridiculous 0.50 ERA that he's held through the first three starts of the season, it is noteworthy that a drop-off to his xERA would have him in the 3.44 ERA range.
Rodriguez won't instantly regress to such numbers, and even if he did, a 3.44 ERA season would still be a good year for the Diamondbacks lefty.
More:Ā Three ways Pirates' Paul Skenes could lose NL Cy Young Award
The more concerning mark is Gallen, whose 3.60 ERA could be a whole lot worse based on this advanced metric.
There was some concern with his game last year, and while his actual production of a 3.60 ERA has been solid, if his xERA is closer to the truth, the Diamondbacks might see some major regression from Gallen this season.
The xERA and ERA difference for both are among the top-four biggest gaps in baseball when it comes to a negative correlation.
They've been getting a bit lucky based on this advanced data, and their numbers are potentially headed towards a bit of regression.
This is something to keep a close eye on as the season progresses, as Gallen and Rodriguez might regress a bit for the D-Backs this season.
Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez are performing well, but there are concerns about potential regression based on their ERA and xERA differences.
The negative difference between their ERA and xERA suggests that Gallen and Rodriguez may have benefited from luck, which could lead to future performance declines.
If Gallen and Rodriguez experience regression, it could negatively impact the Diamondbacks' overall performance and their chances of success this season.
LIV Golf's future appears uncertain as reports suggest Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund may withdraw funding after investing $5 billion. Despite assurances for the 2026 season, the tour faces challenges from low ratings and strong competition from the PGA Tour.
Mike Trout's 446-foot HR joins him with Aaron Judge in Yankee Stadium lore.
Detroit Tigers projected to take a risk on a 6'3" prep bat in the MLB draft.
Arshdeep Singh makes history as the first PBKS bowler to reach 100 IPL wickets!
California's top high school football prospects are on the move this weekend.
Viktor Hovland shines with a 64 at RBC Heritage, Gotterup scores 70.
See every story in Sports ā including breaking news and analysis.