The 2026 Dallas Wings aim for playoff success with back-to-back No. 1 picks, but history shows that similar teams have struggled in the past. Expectations may need to be tempered despite the talent.
Azzi Fudd. (Michael Gonzales) | NBAE via Getty Images
The 2024 Indiana Fever went 20-20. The 2018 Las Vegas Aces went 14-20. The 2016 Seattle Storm went 16-18. The 2002 Storm went 17-15.
None of them made it past the first round of the playoffs.
So should expectations really be that high for the 2026 Dallas Wings, as they, like those teams did, pursue success with their back-to-back No. 1 picks?
Probably not. But even with just one No. 1 pick overall on the roster, the spotlight is always going to be on your organization.
So, the big question for the Wings in 2026 should be simple: Can Dallas demonstrate significant improvement?
They only improved by .002 in winning percentage (from .225 to .227) after drafting Bueckers. Now, they will be relying on a big sophomore leap from Paige and a strong debut from 2026 No. 1 Azzi Fudd, who happens to be Bueckersâ girlfriend and a fellow UConn Husky.
The 2024 Fever improved by seven games, the 2018 Aces by six, the 2016 Storm by six and the 2002 Storm by seven. On all four teams, the top couple of scorers were the new No. 1 pick and someone who had been on the previous seasonâs squad, indicating that those teams did not benefit from some huge free agency shift, similar to this seasonâs Wings.
The Indiana Fever went 20-20, and the Las Vegas Aces finished with a record of 14-20.
The 2016 Seattle Storm had a record of 16-18 and did not advance past the first round of the playoffs.
The Dallas Wings face high expectations similar to past teams like the Fever and Aces, who ultimately fell short in the playoffs despite their talent.
The back-to-back No. 1 picks are expected to significantly boost the Wings' chances for success, but historical performance raises questions about their playoff viability.
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Therefore, the previous four back-to-back No. 1 pick teams provide a good measuring stick for Dallas, though the Wingsâ outlook, like those of the teams before them, depends on the caliber of players they drafted first overall.
The No. 1 picks from those four other teams (Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston, Aâja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, Sue Bird and Lauren Jackson) all proved or are proving to be great at the pro level, as has Bueckers. Expectations are that Fudd will also be great, but the bar is set pretty high by those other nine, and there are still questions about what Fudd will be elite at besides 3-point shooting. She could end up being No. 10 if we were to rank these 10 when all of their careers are over. Itâs of course too soon for that, but just a reminder that not all No. 1 picks are created equal.
With that being said, a six-win improvement would get the 2026 Wings to 16-28. That improvement would be on par with what those other teams did, and three of those teams went on to multiple championships. Also encouragingly, the other was one overtime short of making the Finals one year later, and the rest has yet to be written âŠ
So perhaps the Wings can relax knowing that the future is likely bright even though a great deal of success isnât likely to come this year. It will be concerning, though, if they donât come close to making a six-game improvement.
A record of 16-28 isnât going to put a team in the playoffs, especially not now that there are 15 teams instead of 13. What is it going to take, then, for the Wings to beat the odds and push their improvement a bit further to where they make the postseason this year?
The Wings hope Arike Ogunbowale can be a third star, rather than an afterthought living in the shadows of Bueckers and Fudd.
Ogunbowale received MVP voting points every year leading up to last season. She then averaged a career-low 15.5 points per game in 2025. She also averaged just 2.5 rebounds per game after posting a career-best 4.6 boards in 2024. Her assist average was a solid 4.1 per game and her steal average was decent at 1.3, though it was below her career rate.
Already known for her struggles in efficiency from the field in the W, her 2-point percentage was a career-low 40.2 percent (0.18 below her career clip). And her 3-point percentage, which for her career is a solid 34.6 percent, dove to 30.4 percent. One thing that didnât fail her was free throw efficiency; an 84.2 percent shooter prior to 2024, she has taken it to a whole new level the past two years (92.1 in 2024 and 93.1 in 2025).
I personally questioned why she wasnât taken No. 1 in the 2019 draft; she was the most exciting offensive player in the country coming out of college. Her efficiency hasnât remained the same as it was in college, but there are few players you will ever see who can match her ball handling and shot creation.
But right now, Bueckers is the better player, and many wondered if Ogunbowale would even be back in Dallas this year. The fit with Bueckers didnât lead to many wins, and now the team has added another guard in Fudd. Itâs a feel-good story to see Arike still playing for the Wings, with whom she has spent her entire WNBA career. But the Wings need a more efficient version of her to justify adjusting their offense around her versus Bueckers and Fudd.
Arike has to start hitting more of her 3s to help get this Dallas team to where it is capable of going. She no longer has to carry the team on her back, but they need her to be the best version of herself in her new role. The good news is she had a strong Unrivaled season with champion Mist, shooting 35.1 percent from 3 with 1.9 makes per contest.
I expect Bueckers to be in the MVP conversation. If Ogunbowale and Fudd can both have All-Star-level seasons, expect Dallas to make, and maybe even exceed, the improvement seen by previous teams in their situation.