Winners and losers of the early NBA Draft deadline: Duke, Florida retain key starters; UNC loses critical star

[Tracking 2026 NBA Draft decisions: AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and other top prospects declare for the draft

Cameron Salerno

The other underlying storyline is that the 2027 NBA Draft class is projected to be much weaker than this year. Which is part of the equation, why so many people are running it back. Others, such as North Carolina star big man Henri Veesaar, decided it was best to stay in the draft.

With some of the biggest decisions made, let's jump into the biggest winners and losers of the first deadline.

Winner: Florida (unexpectedly) brings back star forward

Florida is by far the biggest winner of this early deadline. The Gators unexpectedly got Haugh to return to school, where he projects to be a preseason National Player of the Year candidate on the top-ranked team in the country. Haugh's decision to run it back would've been viewed as impossible in the pre-NIL era. For better or worse, NIL has evened the playing field when it comes to the deadline to declare for the NBA Draft. The goal for every player is that second NBA contract, where the real money is made. However, Haugh will likely make more money during the 2026-27 season at Florida than he would have as someone drafted in the middle of the first round. With next year's class being weaker, Haugh has a chance to improve his stock. It also helps that the Gators are getting Condon and (likely) Chinyelu back, too. That will be the best frontcourt in the nation this season.

Loser: Veesaar passes on returning to UNC

It's hard to ever blame a player for chasing a lifelong dream of playing in the NBA, but this loss will sting big time for North Carolina. Getting Veesaar back was priority 1A for first-year coach Michael Malone, but the Estonian big man opted to enter the NBA Draft and start the clock on his professional career. Veesaar is currently No. 26 in CBS Sports' NBA Draft Big Board.  I do like what UNC has done in the portal thus far by adding Terrence Brown, Matt Able and Neoklis Avdalas, but the difference between UNC likely being a preseason top-15 team and now being a borderline NCAA Tournament team was Veesaar.

Veesaar's decision to enter the draft was probably the most consequential of any prospect, and leaves UNC scrapping the barrel and hitting the International market for a serviceable center for next season.

[UNC big man Henri Veesaar declares for 2026 NBA Draft, leaving massive hole for Michael Malone

Isaac Trotter

Winner: Arizona retains talent

Round of applause for coach Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats have a roster that's shaping up to be a Final Four contender once again. While I wrote earlier this month that it would be wise for Koa Peat to return to school for another season, he elected to enter the draft alongside freshman classmate Brayden Burries. Still, despite losing that star power, Arizona is bringing back big man Motiejus Krivas and forward Ivan Kharchenkov. Krivas took a huge leap this past season and could raise his stock even more by returning to Arizona. As for Kharchenkov, he was the ultimate Swiss Army Knife and one of the more underrated players in the country. He was Arizona's connector who made everything work.

Loser: Arkansas is among the schools waiting for a decision

Arkansas isn't technically a loser yet, but coach John Calipari will likely be on pins and needles the next few weeks while two of his best players (Meleek Thomas and Billy Richmond III) go through the draft process. Calipari isn't alone. Other players who are still on the fence about staying or going include Vanderbilt's Tyler Tanner, Stanford's Ebuka Okorie, Kentucky's Malachi Moreno, Alabama's Amari Allen and Florida's Chinyelu. Those decisions could have a seismic impact on the sport. With Arkansas, bringing Thomas and Richmond back to pair with a top-ranked high school recruiting class would be a massive win for Calipari going into Year 3. For now, Calipari and those other coaches will be in limbo while a decision is being made.

Winner: Duke only loses Isaiah Evans

Duke coach Jon Scheyer has been the king at retaining top talent. This year is no different, with Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer, Dame Sarr and Patrick Ngongba II all returning. The big one of the bunch (literally and figuratively) was Ngongba. With the big man market thinning out in the back half of the first round, Ngongba would've likely heard his name called late on Day 1 of the draft. Instead, he returns to school, where he will anchor the backline of Duke's defense. Sarr was another interesting stay-or-go decision, but it makes a ton of sense for him to return. Duke did lose Evans to the NBA Draft, but the writing was on the wall after it brought in Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell. Overall, a very solid offseason for Scheyer so far.

[College basketball transfer portal 2026-27 winners and losers: Duke, Florida lead free agency victors

Isaac Trotter

Winner: UConn brings back Mullins

Despite an up-and-down season at UConn that started slowly due to a preseason injury, Mullins put himself in the conversation to be a first-round pick because of his play down the stretch. Mullins would've likely been in the 20-30 range on draft night, but returning to school is the smart play all around. Mullins' calling card coming out of high school was his shooting, but he shot 33.5% (on 6.5 attempts) from beyond the arc this past season. Mullins could be a legit top 10 pick next summer if he improves his shooting and adds versatility to his offensive game next season. Entering the 2026-27 campaign, Mullin will be the face of the UConn program after veterans Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. departed. He will will be asked to carry even more of the scoring after it was announced that Solo Ball would miss the entire 2026-27 season due to wrist surgery.

[Solomon Ball injury: How UConn will adjust to losing star guard for 2026-27 season after wrist surgery

David Cobb