World Cup 2026 Predictions by AI: 100,000 Simulations, 1 Trophy

World Cup 2026 Predictions by AI: 100,000 Simulations, 1 Trophy

Every four years, football’s biggest question rolls back around and everybody pretends they know the answer. Who’s winning the World Cup? The pundits have a favourite. The bookies have theirs. The pub has roughly forty-eight, depending on how late the night is. As long as the tournament has existed, the honest answer has always been the same one: nobody really knows. The guessing has been part of the fun.

This year, for the first time, there’s something new in the conversation. Ahead of the 2026 tournament in Canada, Mexico and the United States, a football prediction platform called NerdyTips has fed every qualified team into an AI model and asked it to chew through 100,000 separate calculations of the way the competition might play out. Squad quality, current form, tactical profile, the various paths each side could take through a 48-team draw — all of it weighted, reweighted, and run again until a clear hierarchy of contenders started to take shape.

The results are interesting, and not because the AI has uncovered some secret nobody else could see. It hasn’t. What makes them worth a closer look is what happens when you strip away reputation, betting-market money, and the recency bias that warps almost every traditional prediction. The picture that’s left is more competitive, and a lot more open, than the pub consensus would have you believe.

The full picture: every contender, ranked

Here is the headline data, before we get into any of the team-by-team stuff. These are the ten nations the AI gives a realistic shot at lifting the 2026 World Cup, alongside the bookmaker odds currently attached to each one.

• France — 18.5% (Odds: 8.50)
• Spain — 16.6% (Odds: 5.50)
• England — 15.0% (Odds: 6.50)
• Argentina — 10.9% (Odds: 9.00)
• Brazil — 10.9% (Odds: 9.00)
• Portugal — 8.2% (Odds: 12.00)
• Germany — 7.6% (Odds: 13.00)
• Netherlands — 5.0% (Odds: 20.00)
• Norway — 3.0% (Odds: 35.00)
• Belgium — 2.3% (Odds: 40.00)

Anyone hoping for a runaway favourite is going to be disappointed. Not a single nation crosses the 20 per cent threshold. What the numbers really tell us is that the 2026 World Cup is wide open in a way recent editions simply have not been. Ten teams have a shout at the trophy, the gaps between most of them are slim, and that hasn’t been true in years.

A quick word on where these numbers come from

It’s worth pausing on who actually did this work. NerdyTips isn’t a newspaper tipster column or a blog with a strong opinion about Liverpool. It’s a football prediction platform that runs daily AI forecasts for essentially every professional match on the planet, from the Premier League right down to the kind of obscure fixtures in countries you might have to look up on a map. That’s where the World Cup model comes from. Pushing 100,000 tournament calculations through a system is only feasible because the underlying engine is already chewing through thousands of real games every week.

What NerdyTips will actually be publishing once the tournament kicks off is the part that should interest any serious football fan. Every one of the 104 world cup predictions for the matches taking place across Canada, Mexico and the United States will go up on the site as the dates approach: result forecasts, goal markets, and the full set of statistical projections the platform has built its name on, including corners, yellow cards, ball possession and total shots. And in a welcome break from industry tradition, NerdyTips publishes every prediction it has ever made, win or lose, so you can judge the track record for yourself before deciding what to make of any of it.

France: the quiet favourites

It’s easy to miss what’s happened to France over the last decade. Didier Deschamps’ side won the 2018 World Cup, lost the 2022 final on penalties in heartbreaking fashion, and somewhere along the way became the most consistently dangerous national team in football. They don’t always look pretty. They don’t dominate the ball the way Spain do. They don’t set the Champions League alight the way England’s Premier League stars sometimes manage. But when the whistle blows in a knockout match, France tend to still be on their feet at the end of it.

The AI picks up on that. France come out on top at 18.5 per cent, the highest figure in the model, despite longer bookmaker odds than Spain. That gap between market price and projected probability is exactly the kind of thing experienced punters start to circle.

Depth is what does it. Even when one or two of their biggest names are misfiring, France can throw on a substitute who would walk into almost any other squad in Europe. Their midfield has muscle and imagination in roughly equal measure. Their defence, on a good day, is among the best in the world. Across thousands of computed paths through the tournament, all of that adds up. You might lose the odd game you shouldn’t lose, but you grind out the ones that count.

There’s also a temperament factor that shouldn’t be underestimated. France have been through the pressure cooker. Their players have played and won a final. They’ve lost one too. They know what the last week of a World Cup actually feels like, and very few squads in this tournament can say the same thing.

Spain: the darlings of the market

If you walked into a bookmaker today, though, Spain would be staring back at you from the very top of the board. Their odds, at 5.50, are the shortest of any team in the competition. That tells you everything about how the market feels after Spain’s emphatic Euro 2024 run and the emergence of Lamine Yamal as the most exciting teenager in world football.

The model has them second, at 16.6 per cent. Not a snub, exactly. Spain are excellent. But it’s a small piece of evidence that the bookmakers might be running slightly hot. When you let a model do enough work, the edge Spain seem to have over France on paper starts to look smaller than the gap in the odds would suggest.

Spain’s problem, historically, has always been the obvious one for a side that lives and dies by the ball. When they can’t impose their rhythm, they wobble. A disciplined, counter-attacking opponent has tripped them up more than once over the years. In a 48-team tournament full of stylistic unknowns and teams Spain will have barely scouted, that’s a risk worth flagging. Then again, when Spain are on, almost no one in football can live with them.

England: finally fairly priced

English football has spent a long time accusing its national team of being overhyped, overpaid and underachieving. The AI offers a small piece of good news for the supporters: for once, the team appears to be priced about right.

England come in at 15.0 per cent, with odds of 6.50. That’s a close match between probability and market perception, and it’s almost the first time in living memory you can say so. The model sees a squad that doesn’t tend to blow opponents away but also doesn’t tend to collapse. In tournament football, where one bad half can end your summer, that kind of reliability is worth more than any number of highlight reels.

The question, as ever, is what happens in the knockout rounds. England reached the final of Euro 2024 and the semi-final of the 2018 World Cup. They’ve been close. Painfully close. The numbers don’t promise glory, but they do confirm what supporters have been hoping is true: this team is right in the middle of the fight. Whatever tactical identity the squad settles on by June, there is real material there to work with.

Argentina and Brazil: no longer the default answer

There was a time when the two South American giants sat at the top of every World Cup prediction by tradition alone. That era is quietly ending.

Argentina arrive as reigning champions, with Lionel Messi still wringing magic out of a career that simply refused to end on schedule. Brazil have Vinicius Junior and a squad that on talent alone could probably win the tournament twice over. Both sides are excellent. Neither is the clear favourite.

The two of them come in at 10.9 per cent in the simulations and are priced at 9.00 by the market, in almost perfect agreement. The message is simple. The top of the world game has become a crowd, and Argentina and Brazil are part of it now rather than standing above it.

Argentina’s strength lies in chemistry. That squad has been together, in some form, since 2021, and you can see it in the way they play. They’re harder to beat than the sum of their parts would suggest. Brazil, by contrast, carry more variance. On their best night they will beat anyone alive. On their worst night they will frustrate a country of 215 million people. The model captures that volatility, and it’s what keeps them just behind the European trio at the top.

Portugal and Germany: the sleeping giants

Now things start getting interesting for anyone looking past the obvious favourites.

Portugal (8.2 per cent, odds 12.00) and Germany (7.6 per cent, odds 13.00) don’t show up at the top of the probability charts, but they keep cropping up in the late stages of the model’s runs. Both are the kind of teams that can absolutely win a World Cup if the draw breaks their way and their best players turn up at the right moments.

Portugal is the more intriguing case of the two. Cristiano Ronaldo, at 41, may or may not still be the decisive figure he was a few years ago, but the team around him has quietly become one of the deepest in Europe. Bruno Fernandes. Bernardo Silva. Rafael Leão. João Félix. It’s a squad with creativity to burn and just enough defensive discipline to grind out a result when it has to. Portugal have never quite put it all together at a World Cup. This might finally be the edition where they do.

Germany, meanwhile, is the team nobody really wants to draw. Their 2018 and 2022 exits were traumatic, but the generation that took them to the Euro 2024 quarter-finals on home soil is closer to its prime now than it was then. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz alone make them dangerous on any pitch in the world, and there is enough experience around the two of them to head off a third consecutive group-stage disaster. A 7.6 per cent chance might look modest. In a tournament this open, it’s enough to do real damage.

The outsiders: where the dreams live

Then come the teams the model doesn’t quite believe in but can’t entirely write off either. The Netherlands at 5.0 per cent. Norway at 3.0. Belgium at 2.3.

The Netherlands remain one of the most tactically literate sides in Europe, even if they lack the world-beating individual their best teams have always had. Norway are the wildcard of the tournament. Erling Haaland alone is worth the price of admission, and if the rest of the squad turns up to its level, they could embarrass a bigger name in the knockouts. Belgium are the ghost of a golden generation that never quite delivered, still trying to prove there is something left to give.

The thing about a 2 or 3 per cent team is that the path to glory is narrow but not impossible. A favourable draw, a standout performer, one moment of magic, and suddenly you’re in the semi-finals. Croatia did it in 2018 and ended up in the final. Morocco reached the semis in 2022 and changed what African football was thought capable of overnight. Tournaments find a story like that almost every time. The only question is which of the underdogs grabs it this summer.

The players who could tilt the balance

Numbers tell one side of the story. Faces tell the other, and a World Cup is nothing without the handful of players whose performances end up deciding trophies.

For France, Kylian Mbappé is the obvious one, but the team’s real question mark sits in midfield. Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga are the engine room around which everything else is built. If those two set the tempo properly, France become almost impossible to break down.

Spain’s Yamal is the most-watched teenager on the planet, but Rodri’s fitness will probably matter more in the end. When Rodri plays, Spain look like champions. When he doesn’t, they look mortal.

For England, it’s Jude Bellingham. If the Real Madrid midfielder is operating at the level he reached during his first season in the Spanish capital, England become a different team entirely. If he’s neutralised, or if the manager fails to build the side around him properly, the whole campaign could stall.

Messi’s presence for Argentina is obvious. Less obvious, but no less important, is Julián Álvarez, who has quietly become the kind of selfless forward every tournament-winning team needs in the side. Brazil will lean heavily on Vinicius, but also on whoever takes up the creative burden in midfield, a role that has shifted from one tournament to the next.

And then there’s Haaland. Norway’s entire campaign depends on whether he can carry a side that has never been here before. If he can, the outsider odds are going to start looking very generous very quickly.

Messi and Ronaldo: one last dance

Somewhere in among all the talk of probabilities and tactical profiles, it’s easy to forget that this World Cup is going to give us something football has spent twenty years arguing about and never quite delivered. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, on the same stage, at the same tournament, almost certainly for the last time.

Think about that for a moment. The two players whose names have been welded together in every greatest-of-all-time argument since roughly 2008 have somehow never actually met in a World Cup match. Not once. They’ve shared La Liga pitches in Clásicos that felt like national holidays. They’ve collected Ballon d’Or trophies between them like other people collect parking tickets. But the biggest tournament in the sport has always kept them apart, in different halves of different draws, falling at different stages, missing each other by a year or a knockout round. And now, in the last World Cup either of them is realistically going to play, the chance is finally there.

Messi will turn 39 a few weeks after the tournament starts. He won the thing in 2022 in what looked like the most perfectly written farewell in football history, and then, somewhere between the open-top bus parade in Buenos Aires and the move to Inter Miami, he decided he wasn’t quite done yet. He arrives in 2026 as a reigning champion with nothing left to prove and, somehow, still everything to play for. Ronaldo will be 41 by kick-off. He’s never won a World Cup and almost certainly never will. But he is still scoring goals for Portugal at a rate that makes a mockery of his birth certificate, and he is still, by some distance, the most-watched footballer alive.

Whether the draw eventually puts Argentina and Portugal on the same pitch is almost beside the point. What matters is that for 39 days this summer, both men will be in the same tournament for the very last time, and every group game, every knockout tie, every quiet training-ground photograph is going to carry the weight of an ending. Twenty years of rivalry, two careers that redefined what was possible, all heading towards the same final whistle. Whatever the algorithms say, that’s the story most fans are going to remember from this World Cup.

What the bookmakers might be missing

Underneath all of this lies a question anyone who follows football seriously has to wrestle with eventually. Why do the AI and the markets sometimes disagree?

The short answer is that bookmakers aren’t trying to predict the future. They’re trying to balance their books. The odds you see on a betting board are shaped by where the money is going, and the money follows narrative as much as reality. Spain’s odds are short partly because Spain just won a European Championship and everybody remembers it. England’s odds stay competitive because the Premier League is the most-watched league in the world. Brazil and Argentina will always attract bets from two enormous footballing countries regardless of what kind of form they happen to be in.

A simulation-based model isn’t immune to errors either. Nothing is. But it doesn’t get pulled around by those same currents. It looks at the teams and asks, given what we know, how often does this one beat that one over thousands of trials? That’s a different question from “who are punters going to back?”, and the answers don’t always line up.

France at 8.50 to win the tournament, given an 18.5 per cent probability, is the most striking example. The implied probability of odds at 8.50 is roughly 11.8 per cent. The model sees something closer to seven percentage points of value sitting there in plain sight. That’s the kind of edge that, over time, separates people who make money on football from people who don’t.

You don’t need to bet a single pound for any of this to be interesting. The more revealing observation is what the gap tells you about how the wider football world is reading this tournament. People look at Spain and see champions. The AI sees a very good team in a very crowded field. Both can be true at the same time.

The case for France, and the case against

Back to the main event. If you were forced at gunpoint to pick a single winner for the 2026 World Cup based on these numbers, France would be the answer. Highest probability. Proven tournament pedigree. Depth in every position. Odds that look genuinely generous next to the model’s projected chances.

But being forced to pick a single winner is a silly position to be in. The real insight from the data isn’t “France will win.” It’s that France, Spain and England are in a tight three-way race at the top, that Argentina and Brazil are right behind them, and that Portugal and Germany are lurking with serious upside. Beyond that, anything can happen.

A model that runs 100,000 calculations isn’t designed to give you certainty. It’s designed to give you a realistic sense of the probabilities, so that when the tournament starts throwing curveballs, and it will, you’re not caught completely off guard. The 2014 Brazil semi-final. The 2018 German group-stage exit. The 2022 Saudi Arabia win over Argentina. Every World Cup delivers at least one result that leaves half the planet speechless. The value of a well-built AI prediction isn’t that it foresees those shocks in advance. It’s that it tells you which teams are actually strong enough to recover from one, and which aren’t.

France, on current evidence, sit on the right side of that ledger. So do Spain and England. So, probably, does Argentina. Everybody else is rolling the dice and hoping the right numbers come up.

See you in June

On June 11, the tournament kicks off in Mexico City when hosts Mexico face South Africa, and for 39 days after that, football will be unavoidable. One hundred and four matches. Forty-eight teams. A champion to be crowned in New Jersey on 19 July in front of the biggest global audience the sport has ever seen.

The numbers say France have the best shot. The bookmakers say Spain. The heart says Argentina, or Brazil, or whatever underdog story catches fire between now and the final whistle. The truth, as always, is that nobody really knows. What we do know is that there are ways now, in 2026, to cut through some of the noise and look at the tournament with clearer eyes than we ever could before.

If the last few World Cups have taught us anything, it’s that the story nobody saw coming is usually the one that ends up mattering. The data just gives you a slightly better chance of being ready for it when it arrives.