Yankees vs. Red Sox series preview: What to know as AL East rivalry opens in 2026, plus a prediction

On paper, the Yankees have the starting pitching advantage in two of the three games, but that doesn't mean a whole lot. Teams win games while being at the starting pitching disadvantage all the time, especially at Fenway Park, where weird things happen and odd bounces become extra-base hits. It certainly makes for entertaining baseball, especially when these two teams are involved.

Here now are four things to know going into this week's Yankees vs. Red Sox series in Boston, with a prediction thrown in because why not?

Schlittler says he's still receiving threats

Schlittler, a Massachusetts native, dominated the Red Sox in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series last year, firing eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts and zero walks. After that game, Schlittler said it had become "personal" because Red Sox fans attacked him and his family online prior to Game 3. Schlittler ended the Red Sox's season, then fired back on social media afterward:

Drinking dat dirty water

— Cam (@Cam31Schlittler) October 3, 2025

Unfortunately, the personal attacks continue. Earlier this week, Schlittler told the New York Post he has received "some messages out there that are pretty unreal," including "death threats." He does not feel the messages have risen to the point that he has to get the authorities involved, however. For now, Schlittler's calling it trash talk that is starting to go too far.

"It's gonna be bad. It's gonna be bad," Schlittler told the New York Post when asked what he expects during Thursday's start. "I'm not nervous about it, but it's gonna be loud. They're gonna probably have dudes that are my age or a little bit younger, sitting right outside the bullpen yelling, whatever, probably throwing stuff at me, trying to grab me. That's kind of what I expect. So I know the guys are excited for it and I'm excited for it."

They're on opposite ends of the power spectrum

Power was a concern for the Red Sox coming into the season and things have certainly played out that way on the field. They've hit 13 home runs in 22 games, tied for the fewest in baseball with the San Francisco Giants. Willson Contreras leads the team with four home runs. Only seven Red Sox players have gone deep in 2026, and four of the seven have exactly one home run.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are third in baseball with 32 home runs in 22 games. Aaron Judge (nine) and Ben Rice (eight) are second and third in baseball in home runs and have out-homered the Red Sox by themselves, and not by a little either. Three other Yankees (Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Amed Rosario) have at least three home runs as well.

There is more to life than home runs, though it is more difficult to score when you have to string together multiple base hits and walks in an inning to scratch out a run. The difference in power between these two teams shows up in their total offense:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 6.05 runs per game
2. Atlanta Braves: 5.70 runs per game
   ...
3. Yankees: 5.00 runs per game
   ...
   MLB average: 4.46 runs per game
   ...
4. Red Sox: 4.05 runs per game

The Red Sox have actually had a harder time scoring runs at home in the early going this year. They've averaged 3.90 runs in their 10 home games, versus 4.17 runs in their 12 road games. That's a tiny sample though. The overall lack of power? That is real. It looked to be an issue coming into the season and it has been an issue 22 games in.

The Yankees have the bullpen availability advantage

Statistically, neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox has a bullpen advantage. Both bullpens rank middle of the pack and have had their ups and downs four weeks into the season. A big difference, at least heading into Tuesday's game, will be availability and rest. First and foremost, the Yankees had an off-day Monday. The Red Sox did not. That's advantage Yankees right off the bat.

Furthermore, the Yankees had blowout wins over the Kansas City Royals on Saturday and Sunday, and starters Will Warren and Ryan Weathers both went seven-plus innings. The Yankees used only low-leverage relievers over the weekend. Closer David Bednar hasn't pitched since Friday. Setup men Fernando Cruz and Tim Hill haven't pitched since the middle of last week.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, lost Sonny Gray to a hamstring injury in the third inning Monday. He'll undergo an MRI and is likely headed to the injured list. Manager Alex Cora had to use seven relievers to cover the final 6 ⅓ innings. Rule 5 Draft pick Ryan Watson was unable to protect a five-run lead in the ninth, which forced closer Aroldis Chapman into the game.

The Yankees go into this week's series with a very well-rested bullpen. Boston's bullpen is coming off a long day. If the Yankees can get to Early, well, early on Tuesday, they could really do a number on the Red Sox bullpen and set themselves up well for the rest of the series. Yankees manager Aaron Boone, on the other hand, can be aggressive with his relief crew on Tuesday.

Who's hot, who's not?

On one hand, it's early enough in the season that everything still falls into the small sample size category. Not everything we've seen is real. Not yet. On the other hand, it's not so early that we don't know who's having a great start to the season -- or a poor start. It's a long season with a lot of ups and downs. Here are three Yankees who've swung the bat well the last two weeks:

Last year, Judge set a record for home runs by a batting champion when he paired 53 homers with a .331 average. His average is down this year, though he's slugged six home runs in his last eight games, so his bat hasn't been quiet. Rice leads all qualified hitters with a 258 OPS+. After platooning earlier in the season, he has forced his way into the lineup against lefties.

The Yankees will see two lefty starters this series (Early and Suárez), so expect Rosario to be in the lineup both games. He's been a great lefty masher in recent years and is doing it again in 2026. On the flip side, the Yankees are still waiting for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to get going offensively. He's hitting .164/.265/.233 and his 83 plate appearances are tenth most among players without a home run.

Here now are three Red Sox players who are coming into the series having hit well the last two weeks:

Story had a dreadful start to the season but has been better of late. That said, the fact he's here with a .727 OPS over the last two weeks tells you what you need to know about the state of the Red Sox offense. Roman Anthony has run a .400 on-base percentage over the last two weeks, but with a .263 slugging percentage as Boston waits for his power to show up.

Masataka Yoshida has started only nine of Boston's 22 games, though he's pinch-hit five times, and is hitting .324/.477/.412 overall. It's probably time to start giving him more at-bats, especially with Wilyer Abreu (.195/.298/.195) and Jarren Duran (.135/.179/.243) struggling badly the last few weeks. New York's two fastball-heavy righties (Gil and Schlittler) are good matchups for Yoshida.

Prediction

Let's close with a prediction. I say the Yankees will win two of three. Gil has not been the 2024 Rookie of the Year version of himself since his lat injury last spring training. The Red Sox will take Tuesday's game before the Yankees rally to take the series with wins Wednesday and Thursday. It has been foretold.