Duke favored, Michigan next in '27 hoop title odds

The Michigan Wolverines won their second-ever men's basketball national championship in 2026 and while bookmakers like their chances to do it again next season, they'll be chasing one of the sport's blue bloods for true favorite status.

Duke is the favorite to win the 2027 NCAA tournament at +800, with Michigan second on the odds board at 12-1, according to DraftKings lines. Fellow 2026 1-seeds Florida and Arizona are right behind at 14-1 and 15-1, respectively.

The Wolverines were a bit longer when the market initially opened over the weekend, showing 16-1 as recently as Sunday, but could have gained some support from bettors in reaction to their dominant run to the title. The Blue Devils also improved slightly from 10-1 to their current number over that time period.

In the era of the transfer portal and player financial incentives, bookmakers are less sure of who the national championship contenders will be when they first open their futures markets, having to base their calculations on reputation and speculation more than concrete information.

"The initial numbers are your teams that we know have been competitive the last few years," DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN "We know they've got a pretty good selection of guys coming back. We know that the new class that's coming in is favorable to them."

"We take a conservative approach on opening future odds," BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle said over email. "We base odds on what is known about each team's expected roster for the next season as well as factoring in the usual pedigree of top teams from power conferences."

Avello calls out Arkansas (18-1) and BYU (30-1) as teams outside the usual pedigree that find themselves in the conversation after some seasons of moderate success. Additionally, recent Final Four teams like Illinois and Houston, both at 18-1, find themselves in the mix with traditional powerhouses like Kansas and Michigan State, both at 16-1.

Then there's UConn who, despite appearances in three of the last four national championship games with two wins, find themselves 10th on the board at 20-1. Avello points out that the Huskies' inconsistency throughout recent regular seasons contributes to his book's calculus on them, adding that they needed constant adjustment throughout the 2025-26 season; he also found it "very surprising" to see them in the title game. That could be the case in 2026-27 too.

"This is where they're at entering the year," said Avello. "I'm sure they'll take some money at [20-1] because the basketball bettors out there know this team. They know the coach. They know they're competitive. They feel like they'll be in the mix at some point."

The more interesting futures adjustments may be in the coming weeks and months as the transfer portal heats up, forcing bookmakers to adapt on the fly as rosters change dramatically.

"Projecting futures on next season's NCAA men's and women's title odds in today's transfer heavy landscape is a formidable challenge," Caesars Sportsbook college basketball oddsmaker Patrick Berbert said in an email. "Odds set in April are often based on incomplete roster information. This makes the process of setting 2026-2027 title odds both an art and a science."