Overreactions: Can Arsenal, Spurs stop downward spiral?

The most recent Premier League matchday saw -- to paraphrase Arsenal coach Mikel Arteta -- several teams punched in the face. Arsenal's grip on the title is slipping with Manchester City clawing them back. The race for the UEFA Champions League places is heating up, while Tottenham Hotspur are teetering on the trapdoor at the foot of the table.

There are plenty of takes around after the weekend, and ahead of the next batch of fixtures -- like we've done with NFL and rugby union -- we look at some snap judgements before weighing up whether they are overreactions or legit takes.

Let's start with Arsenal, and whether nerves are getting the better of them.

Jump to:
Arsenal's title hopes are going down the drain?
De Zerbi can't save Spurs from relegation?
Ngumoha ready to replace Salah?
Chelsea won't qualify for Champions League?
Brentford's Andrews is coach of the year?

Arsenal logoArsenal's title hopes are slipping away

When Arsenal scored that late winner against Everton back in mid-March and Manchester City were held at West Ham United, the title looked to be heading to the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal had a nine-point lead. Job done? Well, not quite. A month later, and after a week in which Southampton knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup and Bournemouth won Saturday, Arsenal are stalling. This title race is now a flip of a coin between Mikel Arteta's side and Pep Guardiola's.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

There are moments across the Premier League's 33-year history that are replayed time and time again. For every glimpse of Sergio Aguero's title-winning goal for Man City in 2012, you'd have also seen countless replays of Manchester United's goalmouth scramble and inability to score a title-clinching winner against West Ham in 1995. The series of blocks from West Ham's players, the eventual shot wide, and the forlorn look on Alex Ferguson's face is forever juxtaposed against Kenny Dalglish celebrating a title with Blackburn Rovers. It has remained an iconic snapshot encapsulating football's cruel, small margins.

You wonder whether the sound of the Emirates Stadium booing Arsenal on Saturday, and a montage of missed opportunities like Viktor Gyökeres hooking the ball over from six yards, and Álex Jiménez's last-gasp tackle on Gabriel, will yet be immortalized as the moment where Arsenal's title hopes slipped away from them.

To reference Mike Tyson's phrase, Arsenal need to figure out whether their plan still works after having their nose bloodied, and the acid test will be how they manage the next week. First up are Sporting on Wednesday in the Champions League quarterfinals, then comes the trip to Manchester City on Sunday.

What works in Arsenal's favor is basic mathematics: If they win their remaining matches (or even get a draw at the Etihad Stadium), the title is theirs. But then you factor in the psychology of the situation. City know what it takes to win titles: they have six in the last eight years under Pep Guardiola while Arsenal have the weight of a 22-year wait.

If City ease past Arsenal at the weekend, the momentum shifts to Guardiola & Co., but this Arsenal side have depth and quality to get things across the line. They can win at Manchester City on Sunday if they find a way to rise above the noise, and trust in what's got them to this point. In short, this title race is going to go down to the wire.

Spurs logoDe Zerbi doesn't have time to save Spurs from relegation

Not even the appointment of Roberto De Zerbi could halt Spurs' dismal run of form as they lost 1-0 at Sunderland on Sunday -- they have picked up only five points in the league this year. Compare that with their nearest rivals: West Ham have picked up 18 in 2026, Leeds United 16 and Nottingham Forest 15.

With West Ham and Leeds winning this past matchweek and Forest getting a point, Spurs are now the favorites to join Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers in getting relegated. They're two points behind West Ham (and safety) with six games to play.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Spurs' players are scared of the specter of relegation. De Zerbi has only been in the job a fortnight or so, but he is fully aware that the fear of the drop has taken hold of his players.

West Ham, Leeds and Forest are used to scrapping their way out of relegation battles. Spurs' players aren't -- where's the leadership? Well, the sight of injured captain Cristian Romero leaving the pitch in tears 70 minutes into their eventual 1-0 defeat to Sunderland sums up Spurs' predicament. The fact he's out for the rest of the season only deepens the gloom. The team is falling apart.

De Zerbi says they just need one win to change the mood -- perhaps that will come against Brighton on Saturday. But that win has been elusive for so much of this year. While their nearest rivals are finding ways to pick up points, Spurs are just falling short, paying for years of poor transfer business, uncertainty behind the scenes and misjudged managerial appointments. They have six games left; win a couple of those and life will be looking rosy again. But it's all far easier said than done.

Liverpool logoLiverpool's Mo Salah replacement is already at the club

This is the season of bright young talents. Max Dowman, 16, has announced himself at Arsenal, while Rio Ngumoha put on another impressive showing for Liverpool on Saturday, getting on the scoresheet in a 2-0 win over Fulham. His first Anfield goal, in his second Premier League start, was brilliant, and it made him become Liverpool's youngest-ever league goal scorer at home. He turned and twisted Timothy Castagne and then planted a perfect curled effort into the far corner of Bernd Leno's goal.

As Liverpool plot life post-Salah, it's time to back Ngumoha and invest elsewhere. He's ready to fill Salah's vast shoes.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Ngumoha is a rare player. In what's been a tricky season with plenty of unanswered questions for Liverpool, Ngumoha's breakthrough has been a wonderful positive. The sight of him scoring Liverpool's opener against Fulham on Saturday and being on the same scoresheet as Salah offers the delightful juxtaposition of the future and past of the club.

Liverpool need to judge this summer's transfer window carefully. After their vast expenditure last year, any recruitment needs to point toward evolution over revolution. But one position you expect them to strengthen is on the flank, as they look for someone to replace Salah.

Ngumoha's goal was a magical moment, and further evidence of his astonishing ability and boundless potential. But Liverpool still need to add to their squad this summer -- it's too soon to rely on Ngumoha. He's happiest off the left, so he'd hardly be a like-for-like Salah replacement. But imagine a forward line up with him on one flank, and RB Leipzig's Yan Diomande on the other. It's a partnership that could last a decade.

Spare him the comparisons with departing Liverpool legends, though. Let him develop at his own pace.

Chelsea logoChelsea's hopes of Champions League qualification are evaporating

Liam Rosenior's side collapsed to a 3-0 defeat to Man City on Sunday. They now lie seven points off Villa in fourth, and four off Liverpool in fifth. That deficit is too much for them to make up.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Chelsea's form isn't great. They lost to City on Sunday, fell to Everton by the same 3-0 margin on Mar. 21 and slumped at Newcastle, 1-0, on Mar. 14. Throw in the trouncing they received from PSG, and this is a team that's losing form at the wrong time. Their Premier League run-in is tricky, too -- they have Man United (home), Brighton (away), Nottingham Forest (home), Liverpool (away), Tottenham (home) and Sunderland (away). That's two teams in the mix for the top four, and two scrapping against relegation. And they've recently suspended their own captain Enzo Fernández for their past two matches. In short, it's far from ideal.

This has been another bonkers year at Stamford Bridge: more mass recruitment, former coach Enzo Maresca's departure and then the appointment of Rosenior. But so much of this isn't Rosenior's fault. He has inherited an unbalanced squad in terms of experience; it's a team built for the future, not for the present. They badly need Reece James back fit, and they've also had to endure unfortunate injury setbacks elsewhere, with first-choice center backs Trevoh Chalobah and Levi Colwill sidelined.

There are just so many off-field moving parts for Rosenior to navigate, let alone tackling their on-field inconsistency. But ultimately, their form and the fixture list suggests their chances of crashing the top five are slipping away by the match.

Brentford logoBrentford's Keith Andrews deserves to be Manager of the Year

Eyebrows were raised when Brentford confirmed their set piece coach Keith Andrews as the man to replace Thomas Frank last summer. But having steered the Bees to seventh in the Premier League, Andrews should be nailed on as coach of the year. This is his first managerial job, and he has barely blinked.

Verdict: OVERREACTION (for now)

Hear me out: Andrews deserves to be in the mix for boss of the year. Brentford are unfortunately accustomed to summers of upheaval. They've seen some of their best players leave previously, and last summer was no different with Bryan Mbeumo heading to Manchester United, Yoane Wissa joining Newcastle, Christian Norgaard moving to Arsenal, first-choice goalkeeper Mark Flekken signing for Bayer Leverkusen and manager Frank taking charge of Spurs.

Given that, few would've had Brentford sitting comfortably in the top half of the table with a handful of matches left in the season. Brentford's recruitment is the envy of most of Europe, and it has worked yet again, while Andrews has slotted seamlessly into the void left by Frank. If anything, the team has evolved.

Other managers will have a say in this. If Arsenal do win the league, Arteta will likely scoop Manager of the Year. But Sunderland's Regis Le Bris deserves a mention too, as does David Moyes at Everton. That's why we've marked this down as an overreaction. It's too early to hand out this award, but Andrews deserves all the praise in the world for the work he has done in west London.