2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, race date: Surprising picks by horse racing expert

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. Commandment is coming off a big win in the Florida Derby, narrowly edging out another top contender in The Puma (10-1). Despite the win, Commandment did slow down near the end, which could be a problem given the Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles while the Florida Derby was 1 1/8 miles.

"I don't like that his win margins have diminished as the races have gotten longer," Yu said to SportsLine. "He was very game in his Florida Derby score, though." Something else to note is that Commandment's jockey, Luis Saez, may be very experienced in his own right, but he never finished better than third place in the Kentucky Derby in 12 previous appearances. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma as a 10-1 longshot as the proven horse racing expert likes the Gustavo Delgado-trained colt's consistency. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 and finished second at the Florida Derby three weeks later. Derby co-second favorite Commandment edged The Puma by a nose in the race at Gulfstream Park.

"He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent," Yu told SportsLine. She also says "his best races put him right in the mix," and jockey Javier Castellano and Delgado teamed up to win the Derby in 2023 with Mage. Castellano also won the 2023 Belmont Stakes on Arcangelo and has won the Preakness twice. He is looking for a second victory in his 18th Run for the Roses. The Puma has finished in the top three in all four races since his maiden run in January. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the "forgotten horse." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions