Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker are now top MLB outfielders, but they were once overshadowed by other prospects. Ten years ago, many players ranked higher than them ultimately flopped.
Key points
Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker are top MLB outfielders.
Both players were ranked behind many prospects a decade ago.
Matt Olson recently hit his 300th career home run.
Judge plays for the New York Yankees.
Tucker plays for the Houston Astros.
Aaron JudgeKyle TuckerMatt OlsonNew York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees
NEW YORK, NY: Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees hits a home run in his first MLB at bat during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on August 13, 2016. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
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Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker are two of the best â and richest â outfielders in Major League Baseball. Would you be surprised that 10 years ago, both were ranked behind numerous prospects that flopped?
Matt Olson hit his 300th career home run Monday night. The Atlanta Bravesâ slugger was ranked well behind both Judge and Tucker in 2016.
That underscores how difficult it is to scout players and project what they may or may not do in the future. It is particularly true of pitchers, especially in todayâs game when they are all encouraged to throw as hard as possible and injury be damned. Weâll fix you with Tommy John surgery.
Tell that to Alex Reyes, Anderson Espinoza, Francis Martes and Jose De Leon. All were ranked well above Judge, Tucker and Olson in 2016. All had the surgery. Espinoza and DeLeon had it twice. Reyes is retired, De Leon pitching in Puerto Rico, Espinoza in Japan and Martes in Mexico.
Q&A
What made Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker standout players in MLB?
Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker are recognized for their exceptional performance and significant contracts, establishing them as top outfielders in Major League Baseball.
Which prospects were ranked higher than Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker a decade ago?
Ten years ago, several prospects were ranked above Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker, but many of those players ultimately did not succeed in the MLB.
How many career home runs has Matt Olson hit?
Matt Olson hit his 300th career home run on Monday night, marking a significant milestone in his MLB career.
What teams do Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker play for?
Aaron Judge plays for the New York Yankees, while Kyle Tucker is a player for the Houston Astros.
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Miami Marlins v Detroit Tigers
DETROIT: Kevin McGonigle of the Detroit Tigers celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting his first major league home run in the 5th inning against the Miami Marlins at Comerica Park on April 12, 2026. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
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Yes, there are young players who appear comparable to Judge, Tucker and so many other current MLB stars. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rated shortstops Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle 1-2 entering this season. McGonigle broke camp with the Detroit Tigers and has hit .315 in his first 34 career games. Griffin, 20, hit .438 in five games at Triple-A Indianapolis and was called up by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Heâs hitting .262 and is 7-for-7 in steal attempts in 29 games.
There are plenty of prospects in 2026. Just as there were in 2016. Will they be boom or bust?
In 2016, Alford was a 21-year-old outfielder in the Toronto Blue Jaysâ organization. He had hit .298 with 91 runs and 27 steals in 2015. Baseball America ranked him No. 25 overall; MLB.com at No. 42.
The Jays signed him for $750,000 as a third-round pick at age 17 in 2012. He played in their system in the summer and was a quarterback at Southern Mississippi and defensive back at Mississippi in the fall for two years before concentrating completely on baseball.
Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles
BALTIMORE: Pinch-runner Anthony Alford of the Toronto Blue Jays slides safely into third base in the ninth inning on a single by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 17, 2019. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
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In 102 career games for Toronto (2017-20) and Pittsburgh (2020-22), he hit .209 with 8 homers, 20 RBI and 11 steals.
Judge got $1.8 million to sign as a first-round pick in 2013. In 2016, he was ranked No. 31 overall by MLB.com and No. 76 by Baseball America. In 2015 in 124 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he had hit only .255 with 20 homers, 72 RBI. His 26.9% strikeout rate and ordinary .681 OPS at Triple-A was of concern.'
Judge signed a nine-year, $360 million contract after winning the AL MVP Award in 2022. He was MVP again in 2024 and 2025 and continues to pile up numbers.
In 2016, Brinson was the clear choice. ranked No. 16 overall by MLB.com and Baseball America (calling him a potential 30-homer, 30-steals a season player). Tucker was No. 61 by Baseball America, No. 74 by MLB Pipeline.
Brinson got $1.625 million from the Texas Rangers as pick No. 29 in the 2012 MLB Draft. It seemed everybody wanted the outfielder â until they got him. He was traded to Milwaukee, Miami, signed by Houston and dealt to San Francisco. In 357 MLB games, he hit .198 with 28 homers and 10 steals.
Brinson had 30-30 potential. Tucker has twice hit 30 homers. He hit 29 and stole 30 for the Astros in 2023.
Ranking Tucker lower in 2016 was not that bad. He was only age 19. Brinson was 22 and should have been more advanced. Turns out, he advanced into retirement ahead of many players from the 2016 rankings still producing such as Cody Bellinger (No. 54 by BA), Ozzie Albies (BA, 63), Willson Contreras (67, BA), Jorge Polanco (No. 97 by MLB.com).
You know where this matchup of slugging first basemen is heading. Reed, ranked No. 11 by Baseball America and No. 40 by MLB.com. vs. Olson, No. 100 by MLB.com and unranked by BA proved to be no contest.
Reed got $1.350 million from Houston as the first pick of the second round in 2014. He played 62 MLB games and hit .149 with four homers.
Atlanta Braves v Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE: Ozzie Albies celebrates with Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves after their back-to-back solo home runs during the sixth inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on May 4, 2026. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
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He got more money to sign than Olson ($1,079,700) did as the 47th overall choice in 2012 by the Oakland Athletics. Olson is now in the middle of an eight-year, $168 million deal signed with the Atlanta Braves in 2022 after being traded for four prospects.
From 2021 through 2025, Olson averaged 37 homers, 109 RBI. He currently leads the NL in homers (12), RBI (32) and is hitting .300.
Another Aaron Judge?
Matching the production by the Yankeesâ great is quite a high target. Yet catcher Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners outhomered Judge, 60-to-53 a year ago. Who would have thought that possible?
There are other power prospects in the minors though it entirely possible that a player will sneak up and over scouting reports to become a sensation like Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout or Aaron Judge. Any scout will tell you his job is a science â just not an exact science.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
