How NBA's Anti-Tanking Reform Could Impact Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Talks

Anti-Tanking Reforms Could Upend The Trade Market

The NBA recently presented "three comprehensive anti-tanking concepts to its board of governors," according to Charania, although modifications are "expected to each before a formal vote in May." All three proposals would expand the draft lottery to at least 18 teams and reduce the odds for the worst teams to land the No. 1 overall pick, but they diverge wildly from there.

According to Kevin O'Connor of Yahoo Sports, one alternative idea floated to the NBA involved reducing the odds of the worst three teams in the league, which commissioner Adam Silver reportedly "responded enthusiastically to." However, some teams have pushed back against these proposals by noting "how much more difficult it could be to rebuild," per O'Connor.

Regardless, it seems likely that the NBA will expand the lottery to include more teams and/or reduce the odds of the worst teams landing the No. 1 overall pick. Depending on where the NBA ultimately settles, that could have a drastic impact on the league's trade market as well.

Most trades involving superstars in recent years have been built around packages featuring multiple draft picks. Desmond Bane fetched four first-rounders from the Orlando Magic this past offseason. The Utah Jazz gave up three first-rounders for Jaren Jackson Jr. at this year's trade deadline.

That's nothing compared to the haul that the Los Angeles Clippers sent to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Paul George back in 2019. They gave up five first-round picks, two first-round pick swaps and future MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to land George, which was the key to convince Kawhi Leonard to sign with them in free agency that summer. They're still being haunted by that trade.

Perhaps deterring teams from offering picks-heavy packages will make it easier for teams to dig their way out of trades that they eventually grow to regret. But any reforms to the structure of the lottery will inevitably have trickle-down effects on the trade market, too.

What Should Teams Prefer Instead Of Picks?

Under the current system, only 14 teams are involved in the draft lottery. The teams with the three worst records all have a 14.0% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a roughly 52% chance of securing a top-four pick. No team can fall more than four spots on lottery night, so the team with the worst record can’t land lower than No. 5 overall, the team with the second-worst record can’t be worse than No. 6, so on and so forth.

One of the NBA's proposals involved drawing ping-pong balls for every pick in the lottery. That would remove the floor for even the worst teams and make the entire event far more unpredictable. The bottom 10 teams would all have an 8% chance of moving up in the lottery under that format, adding even more uncertainty to the mix.

Now, think of that from the Bucks’ perspective. If they trade Antetokounmpo, they’re likely condemning themselves to the NBA’s basement for the next few years. They went 32-50 this season, and that was with Antetokounmpo playing 36 games. What’s going to happen when they no longer have his 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists per game?

If the NBA expands the lottery and/or reduces the odds of the worst teams getting high picks, draft picks will become far more high-variance in general. The Bucks, who'll be looking for their new franchise cornerstone after trading Antetokounmpo, might not want to gamble on that type of uncertainty. Instead, they'd likely prefer to acquire a blue-chip prospect along with future draft picks.

In late March, ESPN's Ramona Shelburne reported that the Golden State Warriors offered the Bucks four unprotected first-round picks for Antetokounmpo, but they "never seemed to gain much momentum on a deal." Instead, the Bucks seemed interested in "younger building blocks" such as Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe and Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley.

If that holds true this summer—and the NBA decreases the trade value of draft picks by upending the lottery structure—that could also change the landscape of potential Antetokounmpo landing spots. Teams that were hoping to bowl the Bucks over with a bushel of picks might be at a disadvantage compared to those that can offer a blue-chip prospect such as Edgecombe, Mobley or San Antonio Spurs guards Stephon Castle or Dylan Harper.

Unintended consequences are basically a rule of life when it comes to major NBA reforms. The new 65-game minimum for certain end-of-season awards continues to have financial ripple effects throughout the league. The NBA also flattened its lottery odds in response to the "Process" Sixers of the mid-2010s, which unintentionally wound up leading to the widespread tanking on display this season.

Any lottery reform won't only hurt the worst teams in the league. It's also bound to shake up the trade market by changing the value that teams assign to draft picks. If the increased variance of first-round picks makes them less appealing assets, teams with blue-chip prospects could be in the driver's seat moving forward for any superstar trade talks.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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This article was originally published on Forbes.com