The Houston Astros, currently struggling with a 16-27 record, may become trade deadline sellers due to injuries and performance issues. Their playoff odds are diminishing as they face a tougher schedule ahead.
Key points
Astros have a record of 16-27.
They are currently in last place in the AL West.
The team has faced significant injuries this season.
Their run differential is minus-44, tied for worst in MLB.
The Astros may become trade deadline sellers.
Houston AstrosMLB
astros-graphic-ted-hyman.png
Ted Hyman, CBS Sports
It would have been an imponderable question not so long so, thanks to what recent history has conditioned us to believe about the team. Still, the current standings and reasonable forward-looking projections force us to ask: Will the Houston Astros be deadline sellers, and if so, what might that look like?
Yes, we're talking about the team that's notched 10 straight winning full seasons and has made the playoffs in nine of the last 11 years. Not all that long ago, Houston had advanced at least as far as the American League Championship Series in seven straight seasons and won the World Series in both 2017 and 2022. Things now, though, are quite different. Thanks to an inordinate run of injuries early in the season, some age-related decline, and years of free-agent departures, the Astros right now are one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball. Their current record of 16-27 puts them in a last-place tie in the weak AL West. Their run differential of minus-44 is tied for worst in MLB.
Also not encouraging is that the Astros thus far have played the weakest schedule in all of MLB as measured by opponents' average winning percentage. Over the rest of the season, however, that toughens up a bit, as the Astros rank 18th in remaining strength of schedule. All of this brings us to the Astros' current playoff odds from the usual sources:
The Houston Astros currently have a record of 16-27.
Why might the Astros become trade deadline sellers?
The Astros may become trade deadline sellers due to a combination of injuries, age-related decline, and their poor performance this season.
How does the Astros' current performance compare to previous seasons?
The Astros have experienced a significant decline, having made the playoffs in nine of the last 11 years and winning the World Series in 2017 and 2022.
What is the Astros' run differential this season?
The Astros' run differential is currently minus-44, which is tied for the worst in Major League Baseball.
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Those aren't promising figures, even with what may wind up being a very low bar for contention in the very top-heavy AL. All the serious injuries afflicting core contributors right now mean the Astros may not be positioned to improve upon what is presently a 102-loss pace, and let's also consider that the farm system is currently one of the worst in the game.
That brings us back to the possibility that the Astros move some notable veterans at the deadline in the name of improving their young talent base and shifting organizational focus to the long term. If that does come to pass and if the Astros commit to it, then it could make them the most compelling team to watch leading up to the Aug. 3 deadline. Given the current nature of the roster and farm system, that may indeed be a defensible path, and they have the pieces to do more than just flip a couple of middle relievers to contenders. This is not any kind of recommendation, especially with so much schedule left to play before teams need to bucket themselves as buyers or sellers leading up to the deadline. Rather, this is just an entry point into a discussion of what a major selloff in Houston might look like.
At some point, the central matter may become whether owner Jim Crane will opt for a deeper teardown should Houston's fortunes not improve over the next 11 weeks or so. Crane has of course already committed to one such drastic measure, when he greenlit the full-on tank job that directly led to that decade-plus of success now imperiled. So he has first-hand experience with a teardown and rebuild that worked out. Now consider what the Astros could offer if they do indeed decide it's time for a major organizational pivot ...
The big man would be the prize of the deadline. Alvarez boasts a career OPS+ of 165, which puts him behind just Aaron Judge and Mike Trout on the active career leaderboard (yes, Alvarez is ahead of Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, among many others). This season, he's enjoying an MVP-grade rebound campaign after injuries waylaid his 2025. Thus far in 2026, Alvarez's age-29 season, he's slashing .308/.413/.616 with 13 home runs and 98 total bases in 43 games and almost as many walks as strikeouts. When healthy, Alvarez is in the discussion for best hitter on the planet, and that's the case this year.
As well, Alvarez's contract makes him an even more attractive target. He's locked up through 2028 on the six-year, $115 million extension he signed prior to the 2023 season. It's a deal that's going to wind up team-friendly by a wide margin. Alvarez will be owed the balance of a $26.8 million salary for 2026, and he'll be owed that same amount -- $26.8 million -- for 2027 and 2028 before becoming a free agent following his age-31 season. A team acquiring Alvarez, then, would get him for the stretch drive of 2026 and all of 2027 and 2028 and then, if they choose, be able to walk away likely before he enters any sort of deep decline phase. From the club perspective, that's a well-timed exit point. This kind of hitter on that kind of contract would bring back a haul for the Astros.
A two-time All-Star, Paredes has a 112 OPS+ this season to his credit and a 115 OPS+ for his career, and he's still capable of playing a solid third base and even manning second in a pinch. His contract includes a $13.35 million club option for 2027, so he potentially has another full year of team control to add to his value. Paredes isn't the most lucrative of Houston trade pieces, but he's probably the most likely to be moved if they do undertake some level of sell-off this season.
Here's where we get into the injured players, and thus there's another layer of uncertainty to such specific discussions. Hader, 32, is one of the most decorated closers of his era, but right now he's on the injured list with biceps tendinitis. He just started a minor-league rehab assignment, which means his return to the active roster is within view, barring a setback. Hader is coming off a 2025 season in which he produced something like his peak results, so, as far as we know, he's still capable of functioning as a lockdown closer. Obviously, it would greatly aid Hader's theoretical trade value if he's able to perform similarly upon his return from the IL, at least at an underlying level. As for the contract, Hader is inked through 2028 and owed $19 million in each of the next two seasons. Assuming he comes back effectively from this injury, shows no significant velocity decline and is still getting whiffs with his slider, then Hader will be an alluring addition for contenders, even with that remaining commitment. Hader does have a no-trade clause, but that's more consideration than immovable obstacle in this instance.
PeƱa racked up 18.4 WAR in his first four big-league seasons, and in 2025 he earned his first All-Star selection and cracked the top 10 of the AL MVP vote. Unfortunately, he's been sidelined since April 11 with a hamstring injury. The good news is that PeƱa's begun a rehab assignment, and he should be back on the active roster in a matter of days. The expectation is that he'll get back to being a plus fielder at the critical position of shortstop who also puts up strong offensive numbers by positional standards. PeƱa coming into the current season had exactly four years of MLB service time, which means he's not eligible for free agency until after the 2027 season. That extra year of control will of course enhance his trade value quite notably. You'll recall that in December of 2024, the Astros traded away Kyle Tucker with a full year of arbitration eligibility remaining. This would be a similar situation, except the acquiring team would be paying to also get PeƱa for the stretch drive and postseason prior to that full final year of control.
This one seems the least likely to happen. Brown emerged as the breakout staff ace in 2025 with a 200-strikeout campaign that placed him third in the AL Cy Young balloting. This year, though, he has made just two starts because of a shoulder strain. His return, unfortunately, isn't imminent. His placement on the 60-day IL means he won't be eligible for activation until late June. Is that enough time to allay worries about his health and establish a market that the Astros find workable and worthwhile? Another consideration is that Brown is under team control through the 2028 season, and trading him would indeed be a signal that the Astros don't intend to return to relevance during that span.
Before leaving the subject at hand, some words on Jose Altuve are in order. The 36-year-old Altuve may be in decline at the plate, but he's signed through 2029. That alone makes him difficult to move. As well, Altuve has a full no-trade clause and no apparent interest in leaving the team with which he's spent his entire career. He's got a real shot at 3,000 hits in the years to come, and Altuve would probably like to do that in an Astros uniform. Maybe the prospect of playing his final seasons in the midst of a rebuild changes his mind, but the safe assumption is that Altuve would want to stay where he is and further embrace his status as a franchise legend.
Broadly, there is of course, a middle ground, and that would mean trading away walk-year players as rentals -- Lance McCullers Jr., Enyel De Los Santos, Steven Okert, Bryan Abreu -- for very nominal returns and then otherwise running it back in the hopes of contending again in 2027 around Alvarez, Brown, PeƱa, Hader, Ronel Blanco, Tatsuya Imai, and company. The guess is that that's probably what Houston does should the losing continue. However, if they decide something more sweeping is in order, then there's a lot they can do. So much so that if they embrace it and all that it entails, the Astros will be the story of the deadline and perhaps the future -- albeit in ways that won't appeal much to fans of the team.
