Maple Leafs fire Craig Berube: After two years of regression, Toronto makes another major change

Under Keefe, the Leafs were typically a very strong five-on-five team. They don't hand out banners for that, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a Cup champion that doesn't control play at full strength. After Berube was hired, those underlying numbers slipped considerably in his first season before collapsing entirely in 2025-26.

Data via Natural Stat Trick

Another concerning trend of the Berube era was the waning production of the Maple Leafs' best players, especially Auston Matthews. After leading the NHL with 69 goals in 2023-24, Matthews didn't score at anywhere near that pace under Berube.

Injuries played a role in that, forcing Matthews to miss 37 games combined over the last two season, but he still scored just 60 goals in 127 games. That's quite a feat for most players, but it was a clear dip in Matthews' career pace, which still sits at 0.62 goals per game.

Matthew Knies, who did break out in Berube's first season with the Leafs, was a significant disappointment in 2025-26. After tallying 29 goals in 2024-25, Knies took a noticeable step back with six few goals (23) in one more game (79). Beyond that, Knies posted a horrid minus-14 goal differential at five-on-five.

Critical decisions for the Maple Leafs

Less than two weeks into the job, Chayka is faced with two decisions that will define his tenure in Toronto. The first is what he will do with the No. 1 overall pick after Toronto won the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, and now he must hire a new coach based on his vision of the future.

At the center of those decisions is the future of Matthews, who has two years left on his deal at $13.25 million per season. Matthews hasn't said anything about wanting out of Toronto, but The Athletic has reported that the clock may be ticking.

So, how does Chayka play this? As far as the No. 1 pick is concerned, the simplest move may be to draft a dynamic playmaker like Gavin McKenna and give Matthews a running mate on an entry-level contract. That would infuse Toronto with some young talent while giving the franchise financial wiggle room to upgrade the supporting cast, defense and depth forward.

The more aggressive option may be to trade out of the pick in hopes of getting a true superstar who can help Matthews and the Maple Leafs compete for a Stanley Cup now. That path has obvious risks -- including the fact that Toronto is without its first round picks in 2027 and 2028. If Matthews leaves in 2028 -- or sooner -- Toronto would bee looking at an arduous rebuild with a barren prospect pool.

The future of Matthews also weighs heavily on the coaching hire. Chayka could let input from Matthews guide his search, but can he guarantee the captain will still be on the roster in three years? Hiring a coach just to keep Matthews in place certainly has its risks, but it could be a worthwhile gamble if that coach can restore Matthews to the offensive force he was under Keefe.

Regardless of how Chayka arrives at his decision, the next coach must be able to get more out of the Maple Leafs offensively. Scoring was such a strength of this roster for so long, and Berube clipped its wings with an over emphasis on defense, which ultimately led to worse defensive results anyway.

The Maple Leafs are always under a microscope because they're one of the biggest brands in the NHL, but that microscope will be even more powerful this summer. This is the most consequential offseason in Toronto since the team's pursuit of John Tavares in 2018.