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Willy Adames faces a homer-prone pitcher tonight, while yesterday's home run bets were unsuccessful, bringing the season record to 3-8-1. Despite the challenges, there remains a potential for profit in home run betting.
Willy Adames has a matchup with a homer-prone starting pitcher tonight.
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Sadly, neither of yesterdayâs long-shot MLB best home run bets came to fruition. As a result, the season record for MLBâs best home bets sits at 3-8-1.
Homer bets are priced at enticing odds because they are inherently difficult to hit. Still, the odds for homer bets donât necessitate gamblers to hit on many to generate a profit, as evidenced by the best home run bets turning a $600 profit so far this season for any readers who bet $100 on each suggested home run props at the odds listed in the articles.
Bouncing back today with the following two home run props can create some more wiggle room for an inevitable cold spell during the long grind of the MLB season. Thankfully, two home run bets stand out as exciting wagers due to their tasty odds.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+410) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Willy Adames has hit three home runs in 19 games and 79 plate appearances this year. All three of his homers in 2026 were against right-handed pitching, and they were also all on the road in 27 plate appearances under those conditions.
Adames will face a homer-prone right-handed pitcher at Nationals Park tonight. Among Fridayâs probable starting pitchers, Zack Littell has allowed the most home runs per nine innings (3.00 HR/9) this season.
Little has also allowed 21 homers at 1.78 HR/9 to 436 right-handed batters since 2025. Washingtonâs bullpen has also had trouble keeping the ball in the yard. In fact, Nationalsâ relievers have allowed the most home runs per nine innings (2.01 HR/9) in MLB this year.
Adames can find his home run stroke against the Nationals tonight. Among qualified hitters, Adamesâ 24.7-degree launch angle is tied for the 15th-steepest mark. His fly-ball hunting approach can pay dividends with a homer in tonightâs favorable matchup for hitting home runs.
Teoscar Hernandez still has plus power.
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Over 0.5 Home Runs (+438) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Teoscar Hernandez doesnât boast a well-rounded hitting profile. Instead, heâs a classic, prototypical slugger, taking hacks and trading contact and high strikeout rates for homers.
The 33-year-old rightyâs power is aging well. Hernandezâs 62 home runs in 1,261 plate appearances since 2024 are the 16th most in MLB during that period. Hernandez has also already muscled up for four homers in 16 games and 63 plate appearances in 2026.
The right-handed-hitting outfielderâs batted-ball data is rock-solid this season. Among 280 qualified batters in 2026, Hernandez is tied for 38th in barrels per plate appearances rate (9.5%), 38th in barrels per batted ball event rate (15.0%), tied for 132nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (93.7 mph), tied for 77th in maximum exit velocity (110.7 mph) and tied for 50th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (40.0%).
Hernandez has the power to rip a home run against pitchers of all calibers in ballparks of all shapes and sizes. Having said that, he has a mouthwatering matchup and drool-inducing park factors to hit a home run tonight.
Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 37 homers at 1.92 HR/9 in 33 career starts and 173.2 innings since joining MLB last year. Heâs coughed up 16 homers at 1.78 HR/9 to 349 right-handed batters since last season.
Finally, among 29 ballparks with three years of data from 2024 through 2026, Coors Field has the 11th-highest park factor for homers (106). Hernandezâs +438 odds to hit a homer offered at DraftKings Sportsbook are dreamy when considering his power, his matchup, and the park factors at Coors Field, and make his home run prop one of todayâs most compelling picks.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
The current season record for MLB's best home run bets is 3-8-1.
Willy Adames is a player with a favorable matchup against a homer-prone starting pitcher, making him a key figure in today's betting predictions.
Readers who bet $100 on each suggested home run prop have turned a profit of $600 so far this season.
Home run bets are considered difficult to hit due to their inherent unpredictability and the challenging nature of hitting home runs in games.
Catch the Pirates vs. Rays game today! Hereâs how to watch.
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