Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Rueben Bain Jr. and Dallas Cowboys' Caleb Downs are leading early betting action for the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Both players were expected to be top-10 picks in the recent NFL Draft.
Key points
Rueben Bain Jr. leads early betting for Defensive Rookie of the Year
Caleb Downs is also a top contender from the Dallas Cowboys
Both players were expected to be top-10 picks in the NFL Draft
Downs was the first safety picked at No. 11 overall
Matt Patricia's coaching experience enhances Downs' prospects
Tampa Bay BuccaneersDallas CowboysMiami DolphinsOhio State Buckeyes
Most NFL Draft prognosticators expected both Bain Jr. and Downs to be top-10 picks in last Thursday's first round in Pittsburgh. Miami's Bain Jr., for example, was the No. 2 overall prospect on the CBS Sports Big Board and Ohio State's Downs No. 8.
Downs was the first safety off the board but lasted to No. 11; the Cowboys gave up two fifth-round picks to the Miami Dolphins to move up from No. 12 to No. 11. Dallas allowed a franchise-record 511 points in 2025 and was 30th in yards allowed per game, so it was always expected the team would take a defender with its initial pick. It doesn't hurt Downs' DROY prospects that he played last season under defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who oversaw some of the ' defenses. That Patricia unit for the Buckeyes likely had a lot of NFL elements.
Q&A
Who are the top contenders for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?
The top contenders are Rueben Bain Jr. from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Caleb Downs from the Dallas Cowboys.
What were Rueben Bain Jr.'s draft expectations?
Rueben Bain Jr. was projected to be a top-10 pick and was ranked as the No. 2 overall prospect on the CBS Sports Big Board.
How did Caleb Downs perform in the NFL Draft?
Caleb Downs was the first safety selected but was picked at No. 11 after the Cowboys traded up from No. 12.
What impact does Matt Patricia have on Caleb Downs' DROY prospects?
Caleb Downs' prospects for Defensive Rookie of the Year are bolstered by his experience under defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, known for his successful NFL defenses.
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Downs may be primary a nickel defender at first because with two good safeties in Jalen Thompson (a free agent addition) and Malik Hooker, Downs perhaps isn't a "must-start" out of the game for new coordinator Christian Parker's defense. Downs has taken the most tickets and second-most handle at DraftKings to win DROY and is a +750 fourth-favorite, but that number hasn't really moved from its open. The Cowboys have had one DROY in Micah Parsons, who surprisingly slipped to No. 12 in the 2021 draft.
Bain Jr., meanwhile, has taken the most money and third-most wagers at the book after sliding all the to No. 15.
"We had him very high up on the board," Bucs GM Jason Licht said. "We would have taken him a lot earlier."
He has moved from an open of +600 to a +550 second-favorite behind Texas Tech pass rusher David Bailey (+450), the No. 2 overall pick by the New York Jets. One knock on Bain Jr. and why he may have slipped was owning the second-shortest arm length (30⅞ inches) among edge rushers drafted in the first round since 2003. But his 83 QB pressures last season were the most by any FBS player since 2017. Considering some of the legendary defenders in Tampa Bay's history, I'm a little surprised it hasn't had a DROY winner.
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We mentioned Bain Jr.'s odds have improved since the opening and here are some others notable guys who have seen similar:
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren: +3500 to +2500
The safety from Toledo was widely expected to be a first-round pick but landed at No. 58 to Cleveland, which had the 2025 DROY in second-round linebacker Carson Schwesinger. The Browns sent some picks to the 49ers to move up from No. 70 to 58 to get McNeil-Warren.
Jacob Rodriguez: +3500 to +2500
Rodriguez, a linebacker from Texas Tech, was the No. 43 pick by the Dolphins. It always helps to get DROY votes by forcing turnovers, and Rodriguez intercepted four passes last season to go along with his FBS-leading seven forced fumbles.
T.J. Parker: +3500 to +2800
Buffalo snagged Parker, the defensive end/linebacker from Clemson, at No. 35 overall. That was the Bills' first pick of the draft after trading out of Round 1. Parker should serve as an edge rusher with the Bills and had 39 career tackles for loss with Clemson, the second most in FBS since 2023.
CJ Allen: +3000 to +2500
The Colts' first pick in the draft was at No. 53 overall and that's where they took Allen, the linebacker from Georgia. He is expected to be a Day 1 starter after Indy traded away veteran starting middle linebacker and captain Zaire Franklin to Green Bay in March. Allen could be good value at +2500.
Colton Hood: +3500 to +3000
Almost everyone loved the New York Giants' draft haul, including Hood at No. 37 overall. He had 72 pass attempts against as the primary defender in the FBS without allowing a TD since 2023, which was second nationally.
Cashius Howell: +2800 to +2500
The Texas A&M defensive end Howell was the first pick by the Bengals in the draft at No. 41. He was teammates in College Station with Shemar Stewart, Cincinnati's first-round pick last season who massively disappointed in an injury-plagued campaign.
Dillon Thieneman: +2500 to +2200
As a Bears fan, I was thrilled they got the Oregon safety Thieneman at No. 25 overall – the first player chosen at that position in Round 1 by the franchise since Mark Carrier in 1999. I'm hoping the do-it-all Thieneman is the next Mark Brown or Gary Fencik. He should start immediately after Chicago let safeties Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker go this offseason.
