PGA Championship Picks: Why Our Resident Winner Picker Likes Xander & Scottie

Top 5: Ludvig Aberg (+600)

This will be Ludvig’s tenth Major Championship start and he’s already compiling an impressive resume. In his first nine, he has five top-25 finishes including a runner-up at the Masters in 2024 and a seventh place finish at the Masters in 2025.

It should be no surprise that he finds success in Majors, where his strengths are magnified on these types of set-ups. He’s long and straight off-the-tee with the ability to catch fire with the putter. That would play on any course in the world, but it allows for even more separation on the sport’s most penal venues.

He’ll be the first to tell you that he coughed up THE PLAYERS Championship, holding the lead on the 11th tee on Sunday, but let’s zoom out a bit. He’ll enter this week with four top-5 finishes in his last six starts and no finish worse than T21. He’s ready to contend again.

Top 10: Tommy Fleetwood (+275)

After a small slump, Fleetwood showed me enough last week in Charlotte to boost my confidence in typing his name. His “slump” was a three tournament stretch where he lost strokes on approach in each event. Fleetwood snapped that at the Truist Championship gaining over four strokes on approach en route to his T5finish.

If he is returning to form, he is clearly one of the five best players in the world as evidenced by the +1.40 strokes gained per round since the start of 2025. That mark is the third best mark on TOUR behind only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. He’s sporting a 16.7% top-5 rate in Major Championships dating back to 2020 which is right up there with some of the game’s elite players. It’s the same rate as Xander Schauffele who has won two Majors during that span.

Top 20: David Puig (+280)

It’s been a stellar campaign for Puig across both LIV Golf and the DP World Tour. Since the turn of the calendar year, he has five top-10 finishes across both circuits. He’s proving to be competent across a variety of venues thanks to his great driving of the ball.

This will be his sixth Major Championship and he’s still looking for his first notable finish. His improved driver this year should provide a solid floor for him at Aronimink. He’s also putting better now than he ever has in his career which makes sense – he’s only 24 years old and still growing into his game. We are seeing him mature in real time and it only makes sense that his next step is to have his best Major Championship finish.

Top 20: Tyrrell Hatton (+164)

This man is starting to figure out how to play Major Championships. His last five majors have returned four top-16 finishes highlighted by a T3 at the Masters earlier this year. Since the start of the 2022 season, he has only missed one cut – the 2024 Open Championship.

During that stretch, he’s gaining 1.14 strokes per round to the field and has one of the highest top-20 rates in the world. His play on LIV Golf this year has been a mixed bag but he did post a T3 in Adelaide and a T10 in Singapore before his 17th last week.

Top 20: Sam Stevens (+355)

Stevens is one of the hardest working men in golf, having played 14 times already this year, with only Matt McCarty teeing it more frequently. Stevens is turning that volume into results, making all but one cut and and notching six top-25s. I’m most impressed with his ball-striking where he gained +0.67 strokes per round. That puts him firmly between Justin Rose and Gary Woodland this season, both who have found their way into the winner’s circle.

I’m not expecting a victory from Stevens, but I am expecting another solid week. He’s played six Major Championships in his career and has made the cut in all of them and have back-to-back top-25s entering this week.

Top 30: Alex Fitzpatrick

Are you a believer yet? This dude is good and he’s proving that every time he tees it up across the globe. He rattled off four straight top-25s including a win before the victory with Matt Fitzpatrick at the Zurich Classic. Then, in his two most recent events – both signature events – he’s compiled a T9 and a 4th place finish. He’s a special player who is clearly playing the best golf of his life right now. This week will be his second Major start of his career, earning a T17 at the 2023 Open Championship.