The NBA is considering a significant draft lottery reform that would change the odds for the No. 1 pick, aiming to reduce tanking. Teams with the fourth to tenth worst records would have the best chances at 8.1%, while the bottom three teams would drop to 5.4%.
Key points
NBA draft lottery reform could change selection odds
Teams with fourth to tenth worst records may get 8.1% chance
Bottom three teams would have a reduced 5.4% chance
Proposal could be approved on May 28
Draft lottery takes place on May 10
Washington WizardsIndiana PacersBrooklyn Nets
The NBA teams with the worst records would no longer have the best chances of getting the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft as part of a potential, dramatic draft lottery reform, longtime NBA writer Mark Stein and others have reported.
In an apparent effort to discourage tanking, the teams with the fourth-worst through 10th-worst records each would have the best chances at the No. 1 pick – 8.1% – according to Stein. Those teams would get three lottery balls each, per ESPN.
By contrast, the NBA teams with the three worst records each would have a 5.4% chance at the top pick, according to Stein, who reported teams with the 11th-worst through 14th-worst records also would have a 5.4% chance at the top pick. Those teams would get two lottery balls.
This year the bottom three teams – the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets – each will have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, and the odds drop among lottery teams with better records.
The "3-2-1 lottery" reform proposal, which would expand the lottery to 16 teams from 14 teams, could be approved May 28, according to Stein. The lottery for this year’s draft takes place May 10, when the order of selection among 14 teams will be determined by a lottery machine and the random draw of numbered ping-pong balls.
Moondog performs during the first quarter of game one in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors at Rocket Arena.
Q&A
What is the proposed NBA draft lottery reform?
The proposed reform would give the best chances for the No. 1 pick to teams with the fourth to tenth worst records, each receiving 8.1% odds.
How would the new lottery system affect tanking in the NBA?
By altering the odds, the reform aims to discourage teams from intentionally losing games to secure a better draft position.
When could the NBA draft lottery reform be approved?
The reform proposal could be approved on May 28, ahead of the draft lottery scheduled for May 10.
What are the current odds for the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft?
Currently, the bottom three teams have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, while teams with better records have lower odds.
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A member of the Cleveland Cavaliers Scream Team performs during a time out during the second half of game one in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena.
Cleveland Brows player Myles Garrett riles up the crowd during the first half of game one between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena.
A fan waves a towel during the second half of game one between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena.
Fans arrive to watch warmups before game one of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs between the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena.
1 / 5
NBA playoffs fans, dancers, cheerleaders and mascots bring the energy
Moondog performs during the first quarter of game one in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors at Rocket Arena.
1 / 5
NBA playoffs fans, dancers, cheerleaders and mascots bring the energy
Moondog performs during the first quarter of game one in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors at Rocket Arena.
2 / 5
NBA playoffs fans, dancers, cheerleaders and mascots bring the energy
A member of the Cleveland Cavaliers Scream Team performs during a time out during the second half of game one in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena.
3 / 5
NBA playoffs fans, dancers, cheerleaders and mascots bring the energy
Cleveland Brows player Myles Garrett riles up the crowd during the first half of game one between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena.
4 / 5
NBA playoffs fans, dancers, cheerleaders and mascots bring the energy
A fan waves a towel during the second half of game one between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena.
5 / 5
NBA playoffs fans, dancers, cheerleaders and mascots bring the energy
Fans arrive to watch warmups before game one of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs between the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena.
The additional lottery teams would be those that lose the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In game, according to Stein, who reported that each of those two teams will have a 2.7% shot at the No. 1 pick. They would each have one lottery ball.
Of course, the team with the worst record in the NBA has not been assured of the top pick since 1984. Last year, for example, the Dallas Mavericks had just the 11th-best lottery odds yet won the top pick. They drafted Cooper Flagg, who was named Rookie of the Year.
