Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano preview: 5 big questions ahead of Netflix's colossal MMA debut

You know it’s a big MMA weekend once we start asking the big questions. No, it’s not a numbered UFC event, it’s MVP’s foray into the world of MMA, which will air on Netflix on Saturday night. As Ronda Rousey says of the dreaded numerical system, it’s not MVP MMA 1 — it’s Rousey vs. Carano.

As in Gina Carano, who last fought in 2009.

Never mind the inactivity — when pioneers collide, people watch. If Daniel Boone and Kit Carson had overlapped in the Netflix era, here’s guessing Jake Paul would’ve booked those pioneers to square off, too.

Rousey vs. Carano isn’t the only attraction. We have Nate Diaz going up against Mike Perry, Francis Ngannou taking on Philipe Lins, as well as some familiar names on the undercard.

Let’s get to the burning questions!

1. Let’s start with the essential thing here — even if Rousey-Carano doesn’t do anything for the current MMA landscape, what does it mean to the current MMA landscape?

Petesy: The fight itself does not as mean as much as the stance Rousey is taking. Rather than Rousey vs. Carano, it feels like Rousey vs. UFC. It’s one of the biggest stars in the history of the promotion taking a strong stand against them — and the idea of Netflix, MVP and Rousey (at least for this event) coming together to bring a real challenge to the world’s flagship MMA promotion is captivating.

I fully understand people not chomping at the bit to see this fight, but any real MMA fan must understand the importance of what’s taking place for the good of the sport as a whole.

That said, Rousey can’t simply show up here. We need to feel the same energy and spectacle that she brought to the table in her pomp for her to be a viable foundation for this new enterprise to be built on. Even if she does deliver in that regard, she seems very on the fence about her fighting future.

If it is just one and done, once she gives the masses what they want in terms of nostalgia and star power, it will still be proof of concept for MVP and Netflix. This isn’t just about a fight, it’s about the birth of a potentially powerful new entity in the industry.

Chuck: If seeing Ronda Rousey fight Gina Carano in the year of our lord 2026 isn’t wild enough, the subplot of Rousey vs. the UFC has been a major surprise. It’s been a bit bizarre to hear Ronda talk about the UFC’s skinflint model of doing business, especially in comparison to MVP’s idea of things, yet her love for Dana White remains. She talks about him with warmth and affection, even if he’s tied to a company she no longer cares for.

(You’d almost think that Dana is being held hostage by TKO, sending her signals that he needs help.)

What it does for MMA is create another avenue for work, for money, for relevancy — the entire checklist of options that prizefighters covet. This is being framed as something other than a one-off, which is hopeful. The UFC wears the monocle in this monopoly game, yet this group of freedom fighters is trying to change things. Time, of course, will tell.

2. Should the UFC see MVP MMA as a threat?

Chuck: I do wonder about the trade ramifications if this first MVP card does far heftier numbers than the UFC White House card, which it is absolutely set up to do. The math is the first problem, as more than 325 million homes are subscribed to Netflix, while Paramount+ has right around 80 million, though the simulcast with CBS for the UFC’s show will factor in big time.

Needless to say, Rousey-Carano will do big numbers.

The thing is, that’s what matters to MVP right now: Doing big numbers for select events and being able to claim they put on the biggest shows. That’s a competition they can win. The UFC, of course, is Old Faithful, building rivalries and rosters and focusing on creating tomorrows, content-wise. The reluctance to “overpay” fighters, some of whom are showing up on this MVP card, will bite them in the short term, but when has the UFC worried about that?

Nobody manipulates our attention space quite like the UFC, which is a business model built like a social media scroll.

It just keeps going, Petesy. Forever.

Still, there is a “long run” aspect to this that I can’t help but thing about. When the UFC was tied to ESPN, it was tied to the Worldwide Leader. With Paramount+, it’s just one of the many streaming services. If Netflix wants to play the game in the long run, it would be like a sleepy dragon peeling open its eye.

Petesy: I agree with everything you’re saying here — MVP MMA can only be a threat as long as it exists. MVP co-founder Nakisa Bidarian has claimed the future of the MVP MMA department is dependent on the success of this first event, and with big numbers almost guaranteed on account of Netflix’s involvement, I’m confident follow-ups will happen.

The promise of several events per year could cause some interesting shifts in the sport, particularly when it comes to big stars re-signing for the UFC. For the past number of years, there have been limited places for big names to negotiate outside of the UFC, but Netflix and MVP are already changing that.

Nate Diaz was at the negotiation table with UFC when he opted to sign for the Mike Perry fight. Rousey, too, has been vocal about her “dismissive” negotiation with Hunter Campbell. This solitary event has already proved that it can snare marquee names; I’d expect sequels would do the same thing, creating a far more dynamic market for free agents.

3. What does a win for Nate Diaz mean?

Petesy: We both know that losses don’t mean anything when it comes to an icon of Nate Diaz’s magnitude, and I’d expect a loss to Perry — a violent blood orgy, of course — would supply the same feeling.

A win, however, is a different story. With Ronda Rousey’s fighting future up in the air, a win for Diaz would provide another superstar for MVP and Netflix to build with. While MVP and Netflix might opt to build with Perry if he’s victorious, Diaz is far more of a household name and ticks more boxes when it comes to the kind of marquees the world’s biggest streaming platform wants.

As well as that, should Conor McGregor actually fight in the summer, he would just have one fight left on his UFC deal. You know what fight would generate way more eyeballs for Netflix that Rousey vs. Carano?

You guessed it, Chuck: McGregor vs. Diaz 3.

Chuck: Bingo. That’s exactly what I think is in store for Diaz if he figures out how to run through the human abattoir known as Mike Perry. (I’m with you on having doubts as to whether that can happen, of course, but occasionally Nate throws up the birds at doubters like us.)

The one thing Diaz has been able to do, much the same as Perry, is further his brand outside the UFC. Does he have the same mystique as he did at the height of the McGregor series? Maybe not, but he has such a cult-like following that fellow Stockton training partners — guys like Chris Avila and Nick Maximov — crib his mannerisms off him. They are all cut from the Diaz cloth, is what I think they’re communicating when they get to squirming all Diaz-like in interviews.

There is always big groundswell when Diaz wins a fight. Especially when he wins a fight we think he should lose. A win in front of so many millions of people on Netflix gives him leverage for that negotiation with the UFC, and thus that trilogy fight you mentioned.

4. Does a victory over Philipe Lins do anything for Francis Ngannou? And who would you like to see him fight next?

Chuck: I think realistically a strong Ngannou showing against Lins will serve as a reminder than the lineal heavyweight champion is still at large. As always, we are a “what have you done for me lately” public, Petesy — we need as many refreshers as we can get. If he flattens Lins in the first round, we will chuckle that MVP fed him a warm body, but at the same time we will feel the familiar burning need to see him challenged.

Maybe it’s a pipe dream, but I’d still like to see him fight Jon Jones. If the UFC won’t pony up the money to get Jones back into the Octagon, surely MVP would be only too happy. They paid a 57-year-old Mike Tyson to dance, and they are having Gina Carano fight Ronda Rousey, who’ve combined for 26 years of inactivity. Problem is, the UFC would have to cut ties with Jones, and I’m not sure they’d be too keen on it. As much as Dana White loves Jon Jones, he hates Jon Jones.

Short of that pie in the sky … how about the Deontay Wilder fight?

Francis Ngannou and Philipe Lins face off Saturday on Netflix's Rousey-Carano main card.

(Melina Pizano via Getty Images)

Petesy: This is the problem with Lins — if Ngannou does anything but flatten him in the first round, social media will have a field day. I think the card is so much better for having Francis Ngannou on it. It further positions MVP/Netflix as UFC’s opposition due to the fractious relationship the lineal MMA king had with Dana White and Co.

It may very well be a pipe dream, but should Ngannou do as expected, I don’t believe that Jones will be silent about an opportunity to fight him. After all, White did say that Jones wasn’t cut out to play flag football, never mind fight. To piggyback off your Jones point, another man who appears to be at odds with UFC is its heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall.

I have no doubt that his deal is as ironclad as they come, but with the devilment of Eddie Hearn in his corner, who knows what possibilities lie ahead.

The problem is, out of all the potential fights we’ve mentioned here, Deontay Wilder, a boxer, is probably the most likely to happen. I just really doubt that he would be willing to take on Ngannou in MMA. Especially if he sees how the former UFC heavyweight champion slapped the singlet on to beat Ciryl Gane in his final UFC outing!

I’m with you on this one: Beating Lins does not elevate Ngannou, but it puts him in the spotlight again. Nothing more, nothing less.

5. What’s another fight on this MVP card that has your attention?

Petesy: For my money, Salahdine Parnasse has been the best talent outside of the UFC for the last decade. At his best, his striking style is absolutely breathtaking. He won featherweight and lightweight titles with KSW, with Mateusz Gamrot leaving town just before their bout could happen. He is a bona fide household name in France, with KSW hosting similar events in Paris that we saw from UFC and PFL.

I think he can be a real commodity for MVP/Netflix should they continue to promote MMA shows beyond Saturday night. A lot of people believe that his opponent, Kenneth Cross, fighting out of John Wood’s Syndicate MMA, will provide a real rest for the French fighter, so I’m very much looking forward to it.

Two-time KSW champion Salahdine Parnasse steps into a massive stage Saturday on Netflix.

(ANNA KURTH via Getty Images)

Chuck: That is the same fight I like, Petesy, and much of it has to do with your ringing endorsements of Parnasse. Each time he pops up, the “star potential” antennae pops up too. I look forward to seeing him fight in what will surely be his biggest bout for the North American audience.

I am not sure what to expect with Junior dos Santos’ fight with Robelis Despaigne, who arrives from Karate Combat. In my mind I think it’s a showcase moment for Despaigne, who is a sizable favorite. In my heart, I am nervous for “JDS,” one of the sweetest fellows the fight game has ever known. I don’t like seeing good guys like him get made into ground chuck. Optimistically, I know he beat veterans Alan Belcher and Fabricio Werdum in the last couple of years, so maybe … maybe he’ll surprise us.