Suns vs. Thunder: Can Phoenix compete with the champs? Series keys, schedule and prediction

Series schedule

Game 1: Sun., April 19 at Oklahoma City (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Game 2: Wed., April 22 at Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
Game 3: Sat., April 25 at Phoenix (3:30 p.m., NBC)
Game 4: Mon., April 27 at Phoenix (TBD)
*Game 5: Wed., April 29 at Oklahoma City (TBD)
*Game 6: Fri., May 1 at Phoenix (TBD)
*Game 7: Sun., May 3 at Oklahoma City (TBD)

*if necessary

Series betting odds

(Via BetMGM)

Oklahoma City Thunder (-3000)
Phoenix Suns (+1300)

What we know about the Thunder

They are the defending champions. They didn’t quite coast to the 2025 NBA title, requiring Game 7 victories against both the Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers, but they were a 68-win juggernaut that never quite found its peak in the playoffs … and still won the damn thing. And now they have the playoff scars to show for it.

The Thunder looked the part of a defending champion to begin the season, starting 24-1, even without Jalen Williams, who was recovering from offseason surgery to his wrist. There was talk of 70-plus wins, even a record for most wins in a regular season.

Then, the upstart San Antonio Spurs offered a reminder that OKC is, in fact, mortal, defeating the Thunder three times over a two-week span, all leading into Christmas. Over the next 35 games, the Thunder looked like any other contender, finishing 21-14.

Just as it looked like the Spurs might overtake OKC for the West’s No. 1 seed, the Thunder stepped on the gas again, winning 19 of 20 games down the stretch. (They threw away the final two games of the season, once they had the top seed clinched.) They posted the NBA’s best record (64-18) and net rating (+11.1). Quite a title defense.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was sensational all season. He is the favorite to win a second consecutive MVP award, and therefore has a case for the Best Player Alive — along with Nikola Jokić and Victor Wembanyama, his chief rivals in the West.

Williams, who was limited to only 33 games, spent the season trying to round himself into All-NBA form and never quite got there. But Chet Holmgren, the NBA’s second-best defender (behind Wembanyama) and a heck of an offensive talent, too, stepped forward in Williams’ absence, and he has a chance to make an All-NBA roster instead.

Point is: There’s a lot of talent up top for OKC, and it does not end there. Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and Cason Wallace remain a pack of defensive wolves. Isaiah Hartenstein plugs every other hole in a roster. The Thunder have talent that may not even crack a playoff rotation, including Jared McCain, who they added at the deadline just for fun.

What we know about the Suns

The Suns weren’t supposed to be good. At all. In fact, they were bad last season. Real bad. Then, they traded Kevin Durant for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and draft picks, and waived-and-stretched Bradley Beal, waving the white flag on a failed era.

Devin Booker remained. And he is still awesome. He made another All-Star team, averaging a 26-4-6 on 46/33/87 shooting splits. But the Suns weren’t supposed to have enough around him. They were shallow last season, and they shed their stars.

But Brooks brought with him a winning attitude from his days on the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets. He was the human embodiment of everything first-year head coach Jordan Ott demanded — all-out effort. And he added attitude.

The Suns followed suit. They got more than they bargained for from Collin Gillespie, Royce O’Neale, Jordan Goodwin, Oso Ighodaro and on down the line. Green missed 50 games. Brooks missed 26. And Booker missed 18. And still the Suns kept surviving.

They start with a top-10 defense, all based on effort, and figure out the offense, mostly relying on Booker, Green and Brooks to create. Gillespie does his share, too. They got contributions from everyone, including Mark Williams and Grayson Allen. Phoenix, all season long, was a collective, a whole greater than the sum of its parts.

Head-to-head

The Thunder won their regular-season series with the Suns, 3-2.

Throw out the regular-season finale, a 135-103 Phoenix victory, since both teams emptied their benches in a meaningless game. The Suns handed OKC another defeat, 108-105, in early January, when Booker made a last-second game-winner.

Booker missed two games against the Thunder, both blowout losses. Green didn’t play a second against OKC this season. Don’t glean too much from their five games.

But! The lineup of SGA, Williams, Dort, Wallace and Holmgren — one of many the Thunder will weaponize — beat the Suns by 33 points in 35 minutes. No lineup from any team finished better than +20 in any amount of minutes against OKC this season.

Matchup to watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Dillon Brooks

SGA is the NBA’s MVP. Brooks thinks he is the NBA’s MVP. This should be fun.

Do I expect Brooks to slow Gilgeous-Alexander? Maybe a little. If anyone knows SGA’s game, it is his fellow Canadian national team star. Brooks did defend SGA for 50 possessions this season, according to the NBA’s tracking data, “holding” the MVP to 10 points on 4-for-8 shooting and forcing three turnovers against his six assists.

Then again, the Thunder scored 142.3 points per 100 possessions when Brooks was matched up with Gilgeous-Alexander, which doesn’t bode well for the Suns’ chances.
SGA averaged 30 points on 51/50/86 shooting splits in three games against the Suns, and OKC outscored Phoenix by 19.9 points per 100 possessions in his minutes.

But do I expect Brooks to annoy the hell out of Gilgeous-Alexander? Absolutely. And that’s what makes this matchup the one to watch. Phoenix won’t win many matchups in this series, and they sure as heck won’t win this one, but Brooks competes like hell. He’ll make SGA work for everything he gets, and there are few things cooler to watch.

Key question

Can Jalen Williams find his shooting stroke?

Williams was OKC’s second-best player on its championship run. He made the All-NBA third team and All-Defensive second team last season. He is one of 30 players ever to score 40 points in an NBA Finals game and the fifth-youngest to ever do it.

He can pretty much do it all, scoring from all three levels, passing with aplomb, defending every position, rebounding, screening, whatever the game calls for, really.

He was not that player this season. He missed the first 19 games of the year to offseason wrist surgery. He played 24 straight games, before missing 26 of his next 28 games to a hamstring injury. He returned again for seven of OKC’s final 11 games.

Through it all, Williams’ scoring average dipped from 21.6 points per game (on 48/37/79 shooting splits) to 17.1 points per game (on 48/30/84 shooting splits). He is driving just as often as he always did. His assists per game are up to a career-high 5.5. And he’s still grabbing about 5 rebounds per game. His defense isn’t far off.

It’s his jump shot that has suffered. He is shooting 37.3% from the midrange and 29.7% on above-the-break 3s, down from 45.9% and 36.4% last season. You wonder if the wrist is an issue, if the hamstring makes things worse. Defenses will wonder the same and defend Williams accordingly. Ripple effects can be felt on OKC’s offense.

Suddenly, the Thunder are no longer a top-three offense but the seventh-rated one. That may not make a difference against an eighth seed. But against stiff competition they’re going to need Williams, or at least the threat of an All-NBA release valve — someone who can make the defense pay when it bends toward Gilgeous-Alexander.

Prediction: Thunder in five

All of the analytics suggest Oklahoma City is an overwhelming favorite, as do the oddsmakers. I can’t tell you how many players on the Thunder would start for the Suns, but it’s a lot. Still, I respect Phoenix’s hustle too much not to give them a game.