Supercomputer backs Everton over Liverpool in Merseyside derby

That is narrowly below Everton’s 37.3%, while the draw sits at 26.4%, which shows just how finely balanced the fixture is on paper.

Form and injuries shaping Liverpool outlook

One of the more concerning elements behind that prediction is our away record against stronger sides, something that has clearly influenced the model.

Opta highlighted: “Liverpool have won just three of their last 22 away Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top half of the table (D10 L9), including losing six of their last seven (D1).”

That statistic alone underlines why confidence externally has dipped, particularly with injuries continuing to disrupt the squad, as Joe Gomez has already been ruled out of this weekend’s clash.

There is also a broader narrative forming around our performances, with Stephen Warnock recently questioning whether we look “controlled” under Slot, pointing to a lack of clear identity compared to Europe’s elite sides.

Still, there is a flip side, because victory on Sunday would see us become the first team to win at 60 different Premier League stadiums, which is a reminder of the history and resilience we still carry into games like this.

Ultimately, while the numbers may favour Everton slightly, the margins are so small that this derby will likely come down to moments, something we’ve seen time and time again in fixtures like these.