Mid-May fantasy baseball outfielder rankings have been updated, excluding injured players and those in the minors. The rankings are based on current performance data to aid in drafting decisions.
Key points
Updated fantasy baseball outfielder rankings for mid-May
Excludes injured players and those in the minors
Rankings based on current performance data
Players ranked as if entering a fresh draft
Encourages discussion on social media
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It’s the middle of May and we’re rolling along with our Shuffle Up series. We have enough data to form some actionable opinions (in some cases), or at least educated guesses (in some other cases).
Today, we look at the outfielders. I excluded players currently on the injured list (everyone seems to have their own version of injury optimism or pessimism) and any player in the minors, with one exception (I still believe in you, Noelvi Marte).
The players below are salaried and ranked as if I were entering a fresh draft tonight. What’s happened to this point is an audition, nothing more. Don’t get hung up on the salaries in a vacuum, which are just comparison tools. Players at the same salary are considered even.
Have some respectful disagreement? That’s good, that’s why we have a game. Share your thoughts anytime on social media: catch me on Twitter/X or on Bluesky.
What are the updated fantasy baseball outfielder rankings for May 2023?
The updated rankings include players based on their performance data as of mid-May, excluding injured and minor league players.
Why are injured players excluded from the fantasy baseball outfielder rankings?
Injured players are excluded to provide a clearer picture of available talent and to avoid confusion regarding their current value.
How should I use the fantasy baseball outfielder rankings for drafting?
Use the rankings as a guide for evaluating player value and making informed decisions during your draft.
Who is Noelvi Marte and why is he mentioned in the rankings?
Noelvi Marte is a minor league player included as an exception in the rankings, reflecting ongoing belief in his potential despite not being in the majors.
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I thought Cruz’s monster year might have some secondary stats validating things, but his walk rate has actually ticked down and his strikeout rate is up slightly. He’s also chasing more than usual. But when Cruz makes contact, the ball screams — he has the highest exit velocity in the game — and his .266 average is completely validated by the secondary data. Cruz is a circus in the field, but we don’t have to pay for that. He’s also running more proactively than ever.
All we had to do with Rodríguez was get through April, where he has a career .235/.306/.353 slash. He’s back in form in May, with five homers and an OPS over 1.000. Seattle’s park is always going to drag on his stats — his career OPS is 93 points better on the road — but he would be an easy second-round pick in any league moving forward, and you could consider him in the first round.
I thought Tucker might be immune to the strain of a new contract, but he’s been ordinary in Los Angeles. The support of the lineup has kept his run production afloat, but Tucker isn’t running as much and his expected stats (.247 expected average, .389 expected slugging) don’t promote him. It’s not fun betting on back class to straighten out a season, but it’s all we have with Tucker right now.
It feels right to have Trout and Buxton tied in price, two players where we just pray for 125 healthy games. Trout is looking for his pitch and driving it again, bumping the pull rate back up to 46%. And after shutting down the running game for several years, he’s now taking the occasional bag. Buxton’s line drive rate is down and that explains a BABIP drain, but the homers are still there and he’s giving us a reasonable average, so why quibble? Buxton is picky but unstoppable on the base paths, 28-for-28 the last two years.
When players move into the 30s, you wonder if the steals will hang around. That hasn’t been a problem with Arozarena, who’s on pace to get more than 30 bags again. He’s been fortunate with his batted-ball results — Statcast suggests the average should be 44 points lower and the slugging is 85 points too high — so I could see the case for trying to sell high. I’ll use his 2025 level of production for my expectations forward.
You wonder if the slump is getting to Tatis, with his strikeout, walk and chase rates all moving in the wrong direction. The bad luck signs are flashing — his expected average is .276, his expected slugging is .405 — but where you drafted Tatis, you’d expect a better slugging profile. Maybe we have to accept that the Tatis we saw in his first three seasons — before the major injury and the PED suspension — is not coming back. Perhaps this is just another good player and not someone who’s in the MVP discussion every year.
There's a linear pattern to the Abreu breakthrough, with more walks, fewer strikeouts and a bump in line drives. He’s also ready to steal double-digit bases, and the struggling Red Sox have moved him up in the lineup. You don’t have to hide him against lefties either — he’s hitting .372 against them.
Moniak is more useful in daily formats, where we can steer into his home games and the starts against right-handed pitching. He’s often benched against lefties — and he doesn’t hit them when he gets the chance — and his slash collapses to .236/.300/.382 on the road.
We often accept more graceful aging patterns for future Hall of Famers, and that’s a tag that applies to Altuve. But he’s no longer running much and his OPS+ is barely over the league average. Altuve gets some extra kick from his batting slot and multi-position eligibility, but his production is falling for the fourth consecutive year. While player development isn’t always linear, player deterioration almost always is.
Andujar has always been a plus bat, he just needs a spot to play. The Padres are using him anywhere from second to sixth in their lineup, basically the static DH. Andujar isn’t going to walk much but with a .282 career average, it’s not an exploitable leak. He’s just a professional hitter.
Caglianone still has an exciting future, and his hard-hit metrics sing — when he makes contact, the ball goes far. But all of his plate discipline stats are well below average, something pitchers can take advantage of. He’s also slashing just .200/.226/.367 against lefties.
Rafaela has started to produce in May, and he’s also copped a couple of bags after going 0-for-3 in April. It’s possible the new regime wants to run a little more. Rafaela also has a guaranteed daily spot in the lineup while Roman Anthony is hurt. His hard-hit profile is all stuck on the left side (under league average), but he’s been able to cobble together 31 homers the last two years — he’ll get there again. And the batting average should be around the league mean. Not a star, but a useful player.
