The NFL Draft is set to become less trade-friendly in 2026 due to evolving strategies and market values. Teams are reassessing the worth of draft picks, which could impact traditional trading practices.
The NFL Draft is a major event in the sports calendar. More so than any other sports' draft. This is true for several reasons. The NFL is exceedingly popular, the league has done an admirable job marketing themselves, they also took something fans typically didn't track early and turned it into a television event.
Another reason it's popular is the possibility for wheeling and dealing. Who's trading up, who's trading down, what is the compensation, who is it for and who won the trade? This is even wired into fantasy sports. Most fantasy players/owners enjoy proposing and fielding trades. It's an opportunity for a regular fan to play virtual GM.
On April 16, ESPN reported Chiefs GM Brett Veach believes there will be "a lot of trades". Which reads more like gamesmanship than logical as Kansas City has a few reasons to want to trade up. The question is, will they trade away a 2027 first rounder to do so.
Draft picks are currency in the NFL, but that currency has a value. In 1991 Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson and Cowboys executive Mike McCoy introduced the "Draft trade chart" attempting to put real number values on draft picks.
The 'chart' applied point values to each pick creating a numerical road map for draft trades. The concept is simple. If Tampa Bay picking at 15 wants to trade for the No. 1 pick, there is a difference of 1,950 points Tampa has to offer (No. 1 pick = 3000 points, No. 15 pick = 1050 points). Tampa needs to include a series of picks that add up to at least 1,950, for Las Vegas to consider the offer.
Q&A
Why will NFL Draft trades be less likely in 2026?
NFL Draft trades may be less likely in 2026 due to teams reassessing the value of draft picks and evolving strategies.
What factors contribute to the popularity of the NFL Draft?
The NFL Draft's popularity stems from the league's marketing efforts, fan engagement, and the excitement of potential trades.
Who introduced the Draft trade chart and when?
The Draft trade chart was introduced by Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson and executive Mike McCoy in 1991.
What did Chiefs GM Brett Veach say about trades in the upcoming draft?
Chiefs GM Brett Veach indicated that he expects 'a lot of trades' during the upcoming NFL Draft, suggesting a competitive trading environment.
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In recent years, NFL GMs have abandoned the Draft trade chart and offer what they are willing to, regardless of what the chart says, but there is still a perceived value applied to picks. That's the first issue. Its less mathematical now. The other big issue specifically this year is what is on the other side of the would-be trade offer.
For a team to move up from 15 to 1, there is an understanding that the team moving up will need to back up a virtual Brinks truck to sell the trade. The only way to narrow the gap of value is to include high valued picks. This usually will include a future first or second round pick to make up ground in value.
The first trade in last year's Draft involved Jacksonville moving up from No. 5 overall to No. 2 overall. The compensation package included the No. 5 pick overall, the 36th pick overall (4th pick in the second round), No. 126th overall (3rd round pick) as well as Jacksonville's 2026 first round pick (which turned out to be the 24th overall pick in this Draft). It is highly unlikely we see a compensation package that big or one that includes a 2027 first.
2027 looks too good to trade away
The largest hurdle in Draft day trades in 2026 will be what the draft prospects look like in 2027. Typically, teams are less resistant to trading away a future first round pick because they like the player this year enough to sacrifice the would-be player next year. That concept is inverted in 2026.
There have been some comments made by NFL teams, draft analysts and even former players about this draft. After Fernando Mendoza, this is not a great quarterback draft. This is a good offensive line draft, just not for Left Tackle. There is no Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson in this draft. For those positions often coveted at the top of the first, this is not the year to take big swings.
Just considering quarterbacks, this year Mendoza is the only prospect viewed as a franchise quarterback. Yet in 2027 there could be as many as ten. Depending on how the season shakes out. Julian Sayin, Dante Moore, Arch Manning, CJ Carr, Jayden Maiava, LaNorris Sellers, Sam Leavitt, DJ Lagway, Dylan Raiola, Darian Mensah just to name the first ten that come to mind.
Left tackle should be a similar story. Running backs should have at least five prospects expected in the top 50 picks. Edge rushers are another group often prioritized in the first round that should be equal to if not better than 2026. Where this gets interesting is at the wide receiver position.
Cam Coleman, Ryan Williams, RJ Moore, Mario Craver, Ryan Wingo and that's before we even mention Jeremiah Smith's name. Smith will not only be the best wide receiver prospect in the 2027 draft, but he also very well could be discussed as potentially being the greatest WR prospect we've ever seen. Even ahead of names like Randy Moss or more recently Ja'Marr Chase.
Trades require trade partners
The lack of high profile trades this draft won't be because there is no one to trade up for. Las Vegas, barring something unforeseen, are not moving off of Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 for almost anything. However, there is plenty of draft stock, hype, excitement for players like Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Jeremiyah Love, David Bailey and others to suggest teams would be willing to trade up. What they're not likely willing to do is trade a 2027 first round pick to do so.
On April 15, the biggest draft discussion or rumor has been would Jerry Jones and the Cowboys be willing to trade both No. 12 and No. 20 to Cleveland to move up to No. 6 for a shot at Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese or David Bailey if either slide? According to the trade chart they no longer use, 12 and 20 for 6 is a slight overpay by Dallas.
Twelve and 20 works out to 2,050 while the Browns No. 6 pick is only worth 1,600. However, it would likely take both of Dallas' first round picks to make that deal. Specifically, because it does not include a 2027 first round pick.
The fact of the matter is there are very few players, in the first round, teams would be willing to go get if it means parting with a 2027 first or second round pick. Therefore, moving up a considerable amount is highly unlikely. Once the Draft gets into the late teens or early 20s of the first round, we could start to see more trades. All because the perceived value of moving up from the middle of the draft forward, would take less compensation to agree to.
